Getty Indianapolis Colts WR Chester Rogers
No T.Y. Hilton for the Indianapolis Colts again in Week 6 means another opportunity for fantasy football owners to roll out a sleeper wideout – potentially. The Colts were without Hilton in Week 5, and he’s been ruled out again for this weekend’s game against the New York Jets.
Fortunately for backups like Chester Rogers, Ryan Grant and possibly even Zach Pascal, the stars may be aligning for a big game. While Rogers impressed by hauling in 8-of-11 targets for 66 yards against the New England Patriots, he may be in for an even bigger workload this week.
Let’s evaluate what formats and situations the Colts receiver is worth starting in, and I’ll start by breaking down the matchup and key numbers.
Key Stats and Chester Rogers’ Fantasy Outlook
To get an idea of how Rogers’ matchup looks, I’ll look at the Jets pass defense and also his recent numbers paired with anything else that jumps out. All information on fantasy points and statistics for defense vs. position are from ESPN.
- New York Jets vs. wide receivers in 2018: 82 receptions, 1,026 yards, five touchdowns (No. 5 most fantasy points per game)
- Rogers played 77 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 5 with Hilton out, compared to 82 percent for Grant and 77 percent for Pascal, per Football Outsiders
- Rogers has 16 receptions on 22 targets over the past two games
While Pascal saw the same number of snaps as Rogers last week, he also had some brutal drops. I think there’s a very real chance we could see Rogers steal some of those snaps and even wind up surpassing Grant potentially.
Should You Start or Sit Chester Rogers?
It’s hard to argue that this isn’t just a safe spot for Rogers to be deployed in fantasy lineups, but one where he has quite a bit of upside as well. There’s no question Andrew Luck trusts the 24-year-old wideout and he should be a top target and great replacement option for fantasy owners this week.
Whether you simply have a normal starter dealing with a brutal matchup, an injury or just need a solid WR 2/3 or flex play, Rogers makes sense. I’ll keep him in play in all leagues with 12 teams or more, and if you have deep rosters in a 10-team point-per-reception league, I’m fine with him there also.
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