The Cincinnati Reds are entering the offseason with plenty of questions to answer after a disappointing 2026 campaign. One analyst believes the answer to their offensive struggles could come from a familiar division rival.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ is entering free agency, and MLB reporter Andrew Tredinnick has predicted that the former All-Star will leave Chicago to join Cincinnati.
The potential move would address one of the Reds‘ most glaring weaknesses while giving them another established veteran alongside stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart.
However, acquiring Happ could come at a high cost. The Athletic’s Keith Law, as reported by Heavy, projected that the 32-year-old could command a four-year, $100 million contract, despite coming off a down season at the plate.
For Cincinnati, that raises an interesting question: Would the Reds be willing to spend nine figures to bring a division rival to Great American Ball Park?
Reds Predicted to Sign Cubs All-Star Ian Happ
In a November 5 MLB free agency prediction roundup for NorthJersey.com, Tredinnick selected Cincinnati as Happ’s next destination.
“Imagine Happ’s offensive potential with a move from the blustery space of Wrigley Field to the intimate confines of Great American Ballpark,” Tredinnick wrote.
The prediction makes sense given the Reds’ struggles in 2026.
Cincinnati finished 75-87, falling to last place in the NL Central just one season after reaching the playoffs. The team’s offense ranked last in MLB with a .229 batting average and .305 on-base percentage.
The Reds also had the weakest-hitting outfield in baseball, according to MLB.com’s November 7 offseason analysis.
Happ could offer an immediate upgrade, particularly with his combination of power, patience, and defense.
The switch-hitting outfielder batted .218 with 24 home runs, 68 RBIs and a .738 OPS across 156 games for Chicago in 2026. While those numbers represented a disappointing season by his standards, Happ has consistently produced around 20 or more home runs while providing above-average defense.
He’s also a four-time Gold Glove winner in left field.
Happ has a clear connection to Cincinnati as well. He attended the University of Cincinnati before the Cubs selected him ninth overall in the 2015 MLB Draft.
Nevertheless, Tredinnick’s prediction does not establish that Cincinnati has expressed formal interest in signing Happ.
Ian Happ’s $100 Million Price Tag Could Complicate Reds Move
Although Happ’s production dipped in 2026, at least one prominent analyst believes he could receive a major payday.
In his free-agent rankings for The Athletic, Keith Law projected a four-year, $100 million contract, citing his expectation that Happ will rebound toward his previous offensive production.
That’s a hefty price tag for a smaller market team like the Reds.
Still, last offseason provided a blueprint for a similar kind of move. The Reds were reported to have seriously pursued Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with a connection to the area.
It’s important to note that some other analysts are less optimistic about Happ’s earning potential. Baseball America projects a three-year, $70 million deal, while MLB Trade Rumors estimates three years and $45 million.
The Reds must also consider several other needs this winter.
Starting pitching remains a concern, particularly with Hunter Greene expected to miss the 2027 season following Tommy John surgery. Cincinnati also faces uncertainty at catcher and third base.
President of baseball operations Nick Krall has emphasized improving the team’s ability to reach base and make consistent contact after a frustrating offensive season.
The best version of Happ can help address some of those needs. Coming off of a down year, however, there is plenty of risk involved.
Whether Cincinnati pursues Happ or not remains to be seen. The idea of adding a bounce-back candidate with a connection to the area is intriguing, however. Being able to pry him from a division rival adds another layer of potential intrigue.
Reds Predicted to Land $100 Million All-Star From Division Rival Cubs