The Seattle Mariners are likely to lose Randy Arozarena this offseason.
He’s a free agent, and there hasn’t been a ton of speculation about him signing back in Seattle.
Arozarena has been a quality contributor for the Mariners since they acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays, but this is likely his best chance at a strong free agent contract. Seattle could pay him, but plenty of other clubs will be interested, too.
The good news for the Mariners is that losing Arozarena wouldn’t be for naught.
Explaining Randy Arozarena’s Qualifying Offer
The Mariners have yet to officially extend Arozarena a qualifying offer, but once that opportunity arises, they almost certainly will.
Certain free agents are eligible for the qualifying offer, which is a dollar amount (it was $22.05 million for 2026) that the player could accept to play on a one-year deal.
If the player declines the QO, the team that offered it gets draft pick compensation if the player signs elsewhere.
Arozarena falls into a particular bracket of the qualifying offer setup that would reward the Mariners quite nicely if he signs with another team.
This is how MLB Trade Rumors explains it in a recent article:
“If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (Looking back to the 2024-25 offseason for an example, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.) If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2027 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.”
So depending on the value of Arozarena’s contract with a new team, Seattle would then know what kind of pick it would get.
Do Players Ever Accept Qualifying Offers?
For most of the existence of this setup, players have rejected their qualifying offers, but not last offseason.
Both Trent Grisham with the Yankees and Gleyber Torres with the Tigers accepted their qualifying offers a year ago. It was particularly troublesome for the Yanks, who hadn’t planned on having to fit Grisham into their team equation.
Arozarena seems too high in value as a free agent to accept the QO, but you never know. This lockout-laden offseason could also change the calculus on that.
Mariners Losing Randy Arozarena Would Still Bring Something Good Back