The NASCAR Cup Series championship won’t officially be decided until Nov. 8 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But if NASCAR’s latest projections are any indication, Kyle Larson has already put himself in an almost unbeatable position.
With two races remaining in the 2026 season, NASCAR has given the Hendrick Motorsports driver a staggering 92.3% chance of winning the championship. Even more remarkable, Larson could potentially secure the title this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, eliminating the need for a championship showdown at Homestead altogether.
It’s a remarkable turnaround from where the championship battle stood just days ago.
Larson entered Talladega Superspeedway with a five-point advantage over the field. He left with a victory, a 73-point lead and a statistical outlook that makes everyone else a considerable underdog.
NASCAR’s Championship Projection Heavily Favors Kyle Larson
According to NASCAR’s championship statistics released ahead of Martinsville, Larson has a 92.3% chance of winning his second Cup Series title.
The projection reflects just how dramatically Sunday’s YellaWood 500 changed the championship picture.
Larson entered the final lap at Talladega running 11th before charging through the field to steal the victory in a finish decided by just 0.041 seconds over Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron.
The win was worth far more than another trophy.
Larson collected 68 points at Talladega, expanding his championship advantage by 68 points in a single afternoon. NASCAR noted that it was the largest points gain toward the lead by any driver in one race this season.
All 14 of the other Chase drivers lost ground to Larson at Talladega, an especially costly development with so little time remaining to recover.
The numbers also illustrate how difficult the situation has become for the drivers chasing him.
Among the seven remaining championship-eligible drivers, four are already more than an entire race’s worth of points behind Larson.
And while NASCAR’s projections overwhelmingly favor the No. 5 team, they don’t guarantee anything. Martinsville and Homestead still offer opportunities for the standings to change.
Kyle Larson Could Clinch NASCAR Championship at Martinsville
The most significant development might be that Larson doesn’t necessarily have to wait until the season finale to celebrate.
NASCAR’s calculations show that Larson can clinch the 2026 Cup Series championship by earning 59 points at Martinsville, regardless of how anyone else performs.
That would make the Nov. 1 race the championship decider, a full week ahead of the scheduled finale.
NASCAR currently gives Larson a 36.8% chance of securing the title at Martinsville alone.
The 59-point threshold is demanding, but it’s achievable with a combination of stage points and a strong finishing result. Larson could also clinch with fewer points if his closest competitors fail to keep pace.
Denny Hamlin remains the driver with the clearest opportunity to challenge Larson.
Hamlin moved into second place in the standings following Talladega, but NASCAR’s projections indicate that he needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of the lead to control his own championship destiny entering Homestead.
NASCAR also estimates that Hamlin would have a 60% chance of winning the championship if he manages to win both remaining races.
There’s another interesting wrinkle: Larson has finished inside the top 10 in eight consecutive Martinsville races, the longest such streak at any track in his Cup Series career.
That consistency could prove particularly valuable Sunday, when simply avoiding a disastrous result would go a long way toward protecting his advantage.
Two races remain. The championship hasn’t been awarded.
But after Talladega, NASCAR’s own numbers suggest Larson is no longer merely the favorite.
He’s the driver everyone else needs something extraordinary to catch.
NASCAR Gives Kyle Larson Staggering 92.3% Chance of Winning Championship