Getty The Seahawks and Pete Carroll have a tough decision to make on Geno Smith's future.
The Seattle Seahawks could be forced with a tough decision to make during the offseason.
As Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports writes, the 2024 quarterback market will be full of drama. There will be a number of teams looking to court quarterbacks — and there will also be teams that will make tough cuts.
One of those teams that will could be faced with such a decision is the Seahawks when it comes to Geno Smith. As Benjamin writes, Seattle could cut or trade Smith and save $14 million in the process of doing so.
“Just signed a new deal with Seattle prior to 2023, but he could be cut or traded to save almost $14M in 2024,” writes Benjamin. “That’s only likely if the team makes an early-round selection at QB in the draft.”
Seahawks Face Penalties by Cutting or Trading Geno Smith
Following his Pro Bowl and Comeback Player of the Year season in 2022, Smith signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Seahawks. With two years left on his deal, there will be penalties if Seattle moves on from the 33-year-old quarterback early.
If the Seahawks release Smith before June 1, they’ll absorb a $17.4 million dead cap hit. If they designate him as a post-June 1 cut, the dead cap hit shrinks to just $8.7 million while saving $22.5 million. That would seem to be the more feasible route if Seattle were to truly move on from Smith while selecting a rookie quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.
While the Seahawks will enter the final week of the season with the hope of clinching a playoff berth, they do so with slim odds. According to The New York Times, the Seahawks only have a 21% chance of making it to the playoffs after dropping their Week 17 game at home in an upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks will have to beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18 and hope for a Green Bay Packers loss to the Chicago Bears in order to clinch a postseason berth.
Stats Don’t Paint Entire Picture for Geno Smith
Smith has had a solid season this year, but it’s not as productive as the one he had from last season. His touchdown rate is drastically down — 5.2% compared to 3.8% — along with his completion percentage and passer rating being down compared to last season.
However, he’s shown a clutch ability this season, leading the league in game-winning drives (four) and ranking second in fourth quarter comebacks (three).
While the statistics don’t look great — Smith only ranks in the top 10 in yards per completion and yards per attempt among major passing categories — the advanced analytics show a different story. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith’s offensive grade (81.8) and passing grade (81.3) is actually better than last season when he posted a 79.8 offensive grade and 76.1 passing grade.
A large reason for that is due to the high percentage of dropped passes from Seattle’s receivers. Smith’s passes have a 6.1% drop rate this season in comparison to the 3.4% of dropped passes last season. Furthermore, his turnover-worthy rate is actually down this season in comparison to last (3.8% to 4.2%).
There are a number of intriguing options in the draft this season. But if the Seahawks are looking to land one of the top prospects, they’ll likely have to trade up into the top 10 to land one, whether that’s someone like Michael Penix, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. The Seahawks — who are currently slotted at No. 15 in the draft order if they miss the playoffs — they might have a chance at someone like Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy.
If the Seahawks make it to the playoffs, the idea of cutting or trading Smith is off the table. However, if they do miss the playoffs, any scenario is on the table.