Kentucky Derby 2015: Morning Line Odds & Betting Trends

Churchill Downs is the site of the Kentucky Derby. (Getty)

Churchill Downs is the site of the Kentucky Derby. (Getty)

Heavy has been taking a look at how the Kentucky Derby odds have changed day-by-day in the week leading up to the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 2nd at Churchill Downs.

The 2015 Kentucky Derby Draw was televised on the NBC Sports Network and gave each of the 20 horses competing in Saturday’s race their starting post-position. Here were each horse’s odds before the Draw was held on Wednesday:

Here are the Morning Line Odds now after the draw:

Post Position: Horse: Morning Line Odds:
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1
2 Carpe Diem 8/1
3 Materiality 12/1
4 Tecendur 30/1
5 Danzig Moon 30/1
6 Mubtaahij 20/1
7 El Kabeir 30/1
8 Dortmund 3/1
9 Bolo 30/1
10 Firing Line 12/1
11 Stanford 30/1
12 International Star 20/1
13 Itsaknockout 30/1
14 Keen Ice 50/1
15 Frosted 15/1
16 War Story 50/1
17 Mr. Z 50/1
18 American Pharoah 5/2 *Favorite*
19 Upstart 15/1
20 Far Right 30/1

The odds above were provided by sportsbooks monitored by

Early observations:

– Dortmund drew the best post-position among the favorites in the race with No. 8. Dortmund’s odds went up to 3/1 because of that, and has a good opportunity to overtake American Pharoah, who drew post-position No. 18, as the favorite heading into Saturday’s race.

– Despite drawing post-position No. 2, a tough inside draw, Carpe Diem is still the third betting choice at 8/1.

– The crop of horses after the three favorites didn’t have their odds hurt too much due to their post-position and are probably par-for-the-course. Materiality at post-position No. 3 starts at 12/1, Firing Line at No. 1 also starts at 12/1 and Forsted at No. 15 starts at 15/1. The horse that was hurt the most was Dubai’s Mubtaahij who at post-position No. 6 starts at 20/1 — this is also due to the uncertainty about how the foreign-born horse will run against the quality competition in this year’s field.

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