Tom Brady may be short-handed on offense, but his team can clinch the top spot in the AFC this week. (Getty)
The Patriots are a double-digit favorite at some betting sites when they take on the Dolphins, in a game that is important for both teams in very different ways.
New England can secure home-field advantage in the AFC with a win, but can still hold the top spot if Denver fails to beat the Chargers. For Miami, it’s the last game under interim coach Dan Campbell, who is still a potential candidate for the full-time job next year.
If Campbell wants to keep the position his team needs to perform better on home turf, where Miami is as high as a 10.5-point underdog Sunday. The Dolphins are 2-5 at home this season, including losses to the Bills and Jets. That doesn’t bode well for a coach trying to keep his job, but Campbell has been swimming against the current. His offensive philosophy is well-known to be run-first, and the Dolphins are built on a short-passing system that was made successful by Joe Philbin in Green Bay. Now with Lamar Miller’s contract fate to be decided in the offseason, a strong performance against the hated Pats could go a long way towards Campbell’s future.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins have been a mark this season. They haven’t covered a spread since Week 10, and are 1-9 ATS in their last ten games. They’re also 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games, and have lost four of their last five against the Patriots.
The only thing that can get in the way of numbers is the Patriots gameplan for Sunday. If the number one seed isn’t important, then the Patriots may want to keep themselves healthy for the postseason. Julian Edelman isn’t making the trip south, and the Patriots are thin at key positions, namely offensive line.
In their previous meeting, the Patriots trounced the Dolphins in Foxborough. Tom Brady threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns, including two to Edelman en route to a 36-7 victory. The Dolphins totaled 16 rushing yards, and folded after trailing 19-0 at halftime.
With the blowout in mind, the total for this game is set at 47 points according to OddsShark.com. Without Edelman in the lineup, the Patriots aren’t as potent as they could be. They’ve topped 30 points just once since their last meeting, and that was against the lowly Titans.
The OddsShark computer is predicting a 24.8 – 16.6 New England victory.
New England vs. Miami Prediction: New England SU & ATS