NFL Week 4 features some great games, including an intriguing game between two talented offenses in the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams have been through some ups and downs to this point in the season, but for the Giants, this is a massively important spot. The Giants are 0-3 this season and just 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Buccaneers are 1-1 straight up and 1-1 ATS.
OddsShark currently has the betting line right around -3 in favor of the Buccaneers, but it’s moved a full point from the starting spread of -4 in favor of Tampa Bay. The over/under is is 45, and after starting at 43.5 this means that quite a bit of money has gone on the over, moving the total up. The public is 60 percent on the Giants at +3, while also being massively on the over at 73 percent.
Interestingly, the OddsShark computer, which predicts the outcome of games, is all over the Buccaneers to win this game, predicting a score of 27.3 to 17.6. This projection leaves the over/under almost spot on with its current projection.
Although the Giants are desperately in need of a win right now, the talented Buccaneers offense and their defense which is more than capable of getting to the quarterback won’t make life easy. The Buccaneers are also back at home, where they throttled the Chicago Bears 29-7 in Week 2, before losing on the road to the Minnesota Vikings 34-17.
Prediction and Pick
On paper, all things seem to point to the Buccaneers getting the job done. The Giants are 0-2 on the road this season, including a rough 19-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in a game where their offense was nearly silent. With that said, star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t play in that game, and in their most recent road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, he tallied nine catches for 79 yards and two scores.
While the Giants are likely in a “must win” situation this weekend, the Buccaneers are going to be hungry returning home and coming off their own loss. I think this Tampa Bay team is still massively underrated, while the Giants are still overrated.
New York’s offensive line is going to be a huge issue, and I can’t see them picking up their first win of the season in this spot. But, I do believe it’ll be a close game and one that the Buccaneers won’t cover with ease.
Heavy’s Pick: Buccaneers 24 Giants 17. Buccaneers cover the spread. Under the projected total.
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