The Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2026 season carrying enormous expectations, including plenty of discussion about eventually becoming one of the first players selected in the NFL draft. Just four games into the season, however, at least one prominent NFL draft analyst believes Manning has significant work to do before reaching that level.
CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson said he has spoken with people around the league who believe Manning has not lived up to the expectations surrounding him. Wilson went even further with his own evaluation, saying he would currently take five quarterbacks ahead of the Texas star if the draft were held immediately.
“I have talked to folks in the league who, I don’t want to say frustrated, but Arch Manning has not lived up to the expectations,” Wilson said. “I think he is under immense pressure his uncles faced because of the technological world we live in. At the end of the day, he has not played up to being a first-round pick.”
Wilson later made his current evaluation even clearer.
“Right now, I have five quarterbacks I would take before [Arch Manning] if the draft were tomorrow,” Wilson said.
That is a significant change from the expectations surrounding Manning entering the season. His famous last name, physical tools and flashes at Texas helped create enormous NFL hype before he had accumulated much experience as a college starter.
Through four games this season, Manning has completed 73 of 115 passes for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Texas remains undefeated at 4-0, including a dramatic 24-23 victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State, but Manning’s individual production has not consistently matched the enormous expectations surrounding him.
Wilson’s evaluation is reflected in his latest 2027 NFL mock draft. He projected five quarterbacks in the first round while leaving Manning out entirely, writing that the Texas quarterback has not looked like a first-round selection so far this season.
That does not mean Manning’s NFL future has been decided. There is still plenty of football remaining, and Manning possesses the physical traits that made NFL evaluators interested in him in the first place.
Manning will also have an opportunity to change the conversation quickly. Texas faces Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, giving him another major stage against a talented opponent.
For now, however, Wilson believes the gap between Manning’s reputation and his current NFL draft evaluation remains significant. If the Texas quarterback wants to restore the first-round conversation, his play over the remainder of the season could go a long way toward doing it. There’s still a lot of football left to be played for Manning.
Texas QB Arch Manning Receives Bad News From “NFL Folks”