Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs could be headed for a significant turnaround in 2026 after going from 15 wins to just six in one season.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell included Kansas City among the NFL teams he expects to improve this season, pointing to one especially unusual part of the Chiefs’ 2025 collapse. Kansas City went from an NFL-record 10-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer in 2024 to 1-9 in those games last season.
Barnwell noted that the 18-game swing in one-score victories from one season to the next was the largest in NFL history.
The numbers also suggest the Chiefs weren’t necessarily as bad as their 6-11 record made them look.
Patrick Mahomes & Chiefs Could Get a Boost From Close Games
Kansas City finished 2024 with a plus-59 point differential before going 15-2 and reaching its third consecutive Super Bowl.
Before Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15 last season, the 2025 Chiefs had actually outscored opponents by 60 points. They were also eighth in DVOA at that point, matching their final DVOA ranking from the previous regular season.
The major difference came in close games.
Mahomes entered 2025 with a 43-17 career record in one-score contests, but even he couldn’t continue Kansas City’s remarkable run. The Chiefs went 1-7 in those games with Mahomes starting before his injury.
Barnwell believes simply getting closer to average in those situations could dramatically change Kansas City’s record.
“Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs,” Barnwell wrote. “And winning about 65% of the time — which is Mahomes’ new career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer — might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West.”
That would represent a major turnaround for a team that missed the postseason in 2025 after reaching the Super Bowl in each of the previous three seasons.
Chiefs Made Major Changes Around Patrick Mahomes for 2026
Questions remain about Kansas City’s comeback attempt, starting with Mahomes.
The quarterback is returning from the first significant injury of his NFL career after undergoing surgery on his left knee in December. Barnwell noted that Mahomes’ ability to scramble and extend plays could be affected, particularly early in the season.
Kansas City also made major changes to its secondary. Trent McDuffie was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, Jaylen Watson joined the Rams in free agency and Bryan Cook signed with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Chiefs responded by selecting cornerback Mansoor Delane with a top-10 draft pick and bringing L’Jarius Sneed back to Kansas City.
Other areas received significant upgrades.
Running back Kenneth Walker III joined the Chiefs after Kansas City’s running game finished last in explosive play rate. The defensive front added Khyiris Tonga, Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas, while Josh Simmons is expected to provide stability at left tackle after showing promise as a rookie.
Chiefs Face Another Difficult Road Through the AFC West
Kansas City won’t necessarily get an easier schedule after finishing third in the AFC West.
The Chiefs will face the AFC East and NFC West in 2026, creating road matchups against the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Their third-place conference matchup also sends them on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.
ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Kansas City’s schedule as roughly league average and the 14th easiest overall.
Despite those challenges, Barnwell expects the Chiefs to improve.
“I don’t think there will be much pushback against the idea that the Chiefs will improve in 2026,” he wrote.
Chiefs Predicted to Make 2026 Playoff Return if Patrick Mahomes Reverses One Brutal Trend