The New England Patriots haven’t seen A.J. Brown display his complete potential following his underwhelming return from injury.
And one injury expert believes the three-time Pro Bowler’s struggles have an easy explanation.
Doctor of Physical Therapy and injury analyst Jeff Mueller wrote on Friday about Brown’s recovery from a high-ankle sprain, noting the wide receiver returned to game action earlier than initially anticipated.
Mueller’s take makes an appearance in the wake of Brown managing just three receptions for 48 yards in New England’s 30-24 loss to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night.
The performance marked another frustrating outing for Brown, who hasn’t recaptured his usual explosiveness since returning from injured reserve.
And Mueller believes the timeline of his comeback is contributing to those issues.
Injury Expert Issues 25% Warning on A.J. Brown
Mueller explained on X that his expectations for Brown’s production have changed since the receiver returned to action in Week 6.
“Reminder that AJ Brown was initially expected to miss until Week 8 with the high ankle sprain w/ expected 14% regression,” Mueller wrote.
“Came back Wk6 instead and expected regression changed to 25% dip because it was an earlier return than expected. He doesn’t look right because he’s not 100%.”
The 25% figure displays Mueller’s projected decline in production associated with the earlier return, as it’s not a confirmed measurement of Brown’s physical condition.
But the projection surfaces ideas about how quickly the veteran receiver can regain his previous form.
Brown suffered the high-ankle sprain during New England’s season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sept. 9, as the injury held an expectation of missing at least four weeks, according to NFL Network.
After sitting out four games, Brown returned against the New York Jets on Oct. 18, two weeks before Mueller’s original Week 8 projection.
New England cleared Brown to return, but doubts have crept in following the receiver’s two disappointing performances.
Patriots Waiting for A.J. Brown Breakthrough
Brown hasn’t developed consistent production with quarterback Drake Maye since rejoining the offense.
In his Week 6 return against New York, Brown caught only three of 10 targets for 27 yards and was charged with three drops.
His play against Chicago had so-so statistical improvement, but a missed catch stood out when Brown dropped a potential long completion down the left sideline, according to NBC Sports. NBC Sports also observed that his acceleration and route-running explosiveness appeared diminished.
The situation becomes even more worrying when thinking about his increased workload.
Pro Football Focus reported that Brown played his highest percentage of offensive snaps since joining New England during Thursday’s loss.
In other words, opportunities have increased without a corresponding breakthrough in production.
Through three appearances this season, Brown has totaled nine receptions for 101 yards and zero touchdowns.
Those digits are a far cry from the expectations around the veteran due to New England surrendering a 2028 first-round draft pick and a 2027 fifth-round selection to acquire him from the Philadelphia Eagles.
Luckily, the Patriots can give Brown additional recovery time before their next matchup.
New England won’t return to action until Sunday, Nov. 1, when it visits the Miami Dolphins.
Patriots’ A.J. Brown Gets Injury Verdict Amid Return Struggles