Talk of Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid hitting the 200-point mark this season has really picked up online.
McDavid torched the Utah Mammoth to the tune of two goals and five assists on Saturday night in the Oilers’ 6-2 win at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.
As it stands, the Edmonton captain is averaging about 2.8 points per game, putting him on pace for about 240 points. If he were to reach that mark, McDavid would shatter Wayne Gretzky’s all-time single-season points record. The Great One totaled 215 points during the 1985-86 season, recording 52 goals and 163 assists.
And because of the history and context behind both the record and the current state of the game, the market isn’t convinced Connor McDavid can even get to 200 points.
According to the latest numbers at BetOnline Sports and Casino, the market believes McDavid has a 10/1 chance to hit the 200-point plateau. That’s roughly a 9% probability of getting there.
Moreover, the market also sees the NHL’s best offensive player as a long shot to break Gretzky’s market. The numbers show a 33/1 line. At the moment, the market has been set with an over/under point total of 167.5 for McDavid.
The market is hardly discounting the Oilers’ star from having a great season or even leading the league in scoring. It’s just that reaching the 200-point mark, something that only one player has ever achieved, seems too hard to accomplish.
Connor McDavid’s Current Run Must Come with a Grain of Salt
Connor McDavid’s current run, as impressive as it has been, needs to come with a grain of salt. The Oilers have yet to play a serious contender this season.
Edmonton played two high-scoring games against the Vancouver Canucks, last season’s worst NHL team. Then, The Oil has played Seattle, Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Utah twice. It’s worth pointing out that Los Angeles remains winless, Seattle isn’t exactly a powerhouse, San Jose is still technically rebuilding, while Anaheim and Utah don’t really play defense.
That’s why Connor McDavid’s numbers will face a real test when his team faces true top-tier contenders. Edmonton will have two games coming up against the Minnesota Wild and the Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes. If the Oilers can torch those two clubs, it will be more plausible to speak of a historic season.
Otherwise, expectations may come back to Earth for McDavid and the Oilers.
It’s Just a Different NHL in 2026
Ultimately, breaking the 200-point mark in today’s NHL is far too difficult. When Gretzky set his mark, the NHL was notoriously devoid of defense and goaltending. The 1980s were a time in which NHL clubs finally saw players outpace the game as athletes.
Watching video from the era makes it clear that teams didn’t check and cover like they do now. The defensive adjustments in the mid-90s all but evaporated scoring in the league. In fact, the NHL had to make rule changes in order to spur scoring after the league became a tough, grinding type of game.
Things have changed since the days of the Neutral Zone Trap. But defenses and goalies are just too good for someone like Connor McDavid to run amok like Gretzky and Mario Lemieux did.
Still, there is no reason why history can’t happen. Let’s see if it does.
Connor McDavid to Reach 200 Points? The Market Isn’t Convinced