The Baltimore Orioles didn’t quite catch up and get into the postseason, but Trevor Rogers wasn’t to blame.
The left-handed starting pitcher was one of the most underrated pitchers in the sport during the 2026 MLB season.
Rogers chose a good time for that, too, because he’s on his way to free agency.
And while not that long ago it wasn’t clear how long Rogers would last in the majors, now he’s putting up the case that he deserves a high-paying, long-term deal.
Trevor Rogers Contract Projection
MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams thinks that Rogers will command a five-year deal.
The question will be the dollar amount, but it wouldn’t be impossible for Rogers to get more than $100 million in total value.
Adams compares Rogers both to Ranger Suarez and Eduardo Rodriguez, and a mid-point of their contracts would be nine figures.
“While Rogers lacks the consistency we saw from Ranger Suarez in the years leading up to his $130MM deal with the Red Sox, the results are comparable,” Adams writes. “Plus, Rogers throws a bit harder and is reaching free agency ahead of his age-29 season, whereas Suarez got there a year older.”
He’s even younger than E-Rod was when he signed in Arizona.
“That’s not to say Rogers will necessarily match Suarez’s $130MM — but it’s worth pointing out that a mid-rotation lefty of this nature can still command a weighty five-year deal,” Adams writes. “Rogers is a slam-dunk to receive and reject a qualifying offer. He’s a comparable and very arguably better pitcher than Eduardo Rodriguez was when he landed four years and $80MM with Arizona, and he’ll be two years younger than E-Rod was for that deal, too.”
A deal like five years and $100 million for Rogers would raise eyebrows. It sounds like that’s what Adams is sort of expecting, though.
An Unexpected Rise
The thing about this is that Rogers didn’t seem this good a relatively recent time in the past.
He improved his stuff, though, and has benefited. He’ll get a great payday.
“Rogers’ time with the Orioles started poorly enough that he was optioned not long after being acquired in a 2024 trade, but over the past two seasons he’s been everything Baltimore wanted,” Adams writes. “The former first-rounder and NL Rookie of the Year runner-up finished the current season with a 4.03 ERA, an average strikeout rate and a plus walk rate. Add that into last year’s resurgence, and Rogers touts a 3.16 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 41.1% ground-ball rate in a total of 279 1/3 innings.”
Really, fans in Baltimore might be simply remembering a bad blip rather than what came before and after it.
The Orioles can’t really let their team get worse after a so-so season, particularly with a lot of key players in their primes. They’ll have to decide what that means for them and their plans with Rogers.
Orioles, Trevor Rogers Face 5-Year Contract Verdict