Before the Chicago Cubs can really know what they’re going to do with Seiya Suzuki this offseason, they had an initial decision to make.
It had to do with the qualifying offer, that intriguing piece of MLB’s salary code that allows certain players to be offered a certain dollar amount for the season ahead — and if they decline, sets the offering team up for draft pick compensation when the player signs elsewhere.
Classically, players don’t accept the qualifying offer, but last season, four players did.
This season, MLB announced on Monday that eight players have been offered the qualifying offer.
One of them is Suzuki.
Cubs Make Seiya Suzuki Contract Decision
The Cubs chose to offer Suzuki the $23.15 million he would make in 2027 if he accepted the qualifying offer.
Eight players received the one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer today. The deadline to accept it is Nov. 17.
Randy Arozarena (Mariners)
Seiya Suzuki (Cubs)
Brandon Lowe (Pirates)
Trevor Rogers (Orioles)
Adrian Morejon (Padres)
David Bednar (Yankees)
Jake Bauers (Brewers)
Ryan Jeffers (Twins)— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 2, 2026
Essentially, this is the Cubs saying that they would happily pay Suzuki that dollar total for him to suit up for them in 2027.
More often than not, players who get the qualifying offer decline it. They can usually get more money in free agency.
At least a couple players on that list shared above by ESPN’s Jeff Passan may consider it, though. It could be fair market value for a few of those names.
Seiya Suzuki Contract Projection
The Athletic’s Keith Law conveniently wrote about Suzuki on Monday, giving us an idea of what he might go for on the open market.
This was Law’s assessment of Suzuki in free agency:
Suzuki has been extremely consistent since coming to MLB in 2022, with wRC+ figures ranging from 118 (his first year) to 137, although he has made some changes over the past few years that probably have more bearing on his future outlook as a hitter. In 2025, he started pulling the ball more overall, especially doing so in the air, but this past year his hard-hit rate dropped to a career-low 39 percent and actually declined as the season progressed — never something you want to see in a player on the wrong side of 30. He did miss the beginning of the season with a sprained PCL in his right knee, which flared up again in June, although the latter issue did not require a stint on the IL. Despite that injury, he posted his strongest defensive year, getting to plus-4 in Outs Above Average along with another four runs saved with his arm, which is all quite an improvement for a guy who was relegated to DH duty for much of 2025 (thanks to the presence of Kyle Tucker). He’s a solidly above-average hitter, probably on the downswing, and at least a solid-average defender in right field as well who’s improved his jumps enough to mitigate his declining speed. His 4.5 fWAR was a career high and I think there’s some walk-year inflation in it; he’s probably a 3-4 WAR player for the next few years, trending down by the end of a five-year contract, and I’d be inclined to come in under $30 million a year because of his age and the warning signs in his hard-hit rates.
Law writes at the end that he’d come in under $30 million a year for Suzuki. That still could be more than the $23.15 million qualifying offer — and if Suzuki can get a multi-year offer at $25 million per year or so, that’d be a win for him as an individual.
The Cubs could lose a lot of talent to free agency this offseason. At least if they lose Suzuki, they’ll get a compensatory draft pick.
Cubs Make $23.15 Million Seiya Suzuki Contract Decision