For NASCAR’s top drivers, it all comes down to this — one race to decide the 2026 championship, at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday.
But with just over 72 hours to go before engines fire for the season finale, the defending NASCAR champion — who is also the leader in Chase points heading into the championship weekend — made a surprising admission.
Kyle Larson needs to score just nine points on Sunday to clinch his third NASCAR Cup Series championship, but before entering the Chase, Larson had little confidence in his chances.
“I really had no confidence—zero—before the Chase. Hope, but no confidence,” Larson said in his media availability session Thursday morning.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver made a similar admission at Chase Media Day, ahead of the Darlington race. He has won three of the nine postseason races since then.
Kyle Larson’s Chase Turnaround After a Winless Regular Season
Larson captured the 2025 title, his second after 2021, then went winless through all 26 regular-season races. That drought reached 50 races overall. He entered the Chase seventh in the seeding, 55 points behind regular-season leader Denny Hamlin, with an average of 27.85 points per race.
Title models put his odds near 12%, compared with roughly 40% for Hamlin.
Born in Elk Grove, California, Larson has driven the No. 5 Chevrolet for Hendrick since 2021 and owns more than 35 Cup victories. He also won the 2015 Rolex 24 at Daytona overall and multiple Chili Bowl Nationals on dirt.
“I know we didn’t win, but I feel like we executed a really good day,” Larson said of the Sept. 6 race at Darlington. “I remember leaving that race thinking, ‘Man, that’s the first time it’s felt like the 5 team in forever.'”
That Darlington effort set up a Gateway win that ended the drought.
“Then, getting that win, you propel yourself up the points. You’re like, ‘All right, we’re legitimately in this now,'” Larson said.
“But so often in my Next Gen career — my Cup career — you get all this confidence, and boom, you have a crappy race, and you’re right back to square one,” Larson said. “But we were able to kind of build on it all throughout the Chase.”
“I think, too, when the 5 team is in contention, other teams can feel that pressure, and it seems they kind of caved into that pressure a little bit,” he added in the media session.
Kyle Larson’s Clinching Scenarios and Odds at Homestead-Miami
Larson has collected a series-best 424 points through nine races, an average of 47.1 per race and roughly a 69% jump from his regular-season pace. He has won at Gateway, Kansas and Talladega, and added six top-five finishes, eight top-10s, 579 laps led and a 6.78 average finish.
Phoenix interrupted the run, when tire and handling issues dropped him to 34th and trimmed his lead to five points. He answered with a last-lap win at Talladega, his first career superspeedway victory, pushing his lead back to 73 points.
Larson needs nine points to clinch the championship Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, regardless of what anyone else does. He can get there with eight stage points or a finish of 28th or better with no stage points. He has never scored fewer than 18 points in 12 Homestead Cup starts.
Only Christopher Bell, 67 points back, and Hamlin, 70 back, remain in contention. Each must win the race and collect heavy stage points, 13 to 14 for Bell and 16 to 17 for Hamlin, and Larson holds the tiebreakers. Racing Insights projects his championship odds at 99.4%.
A third title would make Larson the first back-to-back Cup champion since Jimmie Johnson in 2010 and give Hendrick a record 16th championship.
NASCAR’s Kyle Larson Makes Surprising Admission Ahead of Championship Race