For most of this season, the Bears owned the NFL’s best ground game. Then Tampa Bay, of all teams, took the lead. Tonight the old champion and the new one meet at Soldier Field in what looks like the Bears’ toughest rushing test yet: the league’s top two rushing offenses are about to collide with two of its top four run defenses.
Bears Rushing Attack: How 196 Yards a Game Became 105
The decline is steep. Through four games, the Bears ran for 196.2 yards a game at 4.9 yards a carry on 159 attempts. Over the last four, they’ve managed 105.3. Chicago leads the NFL with 281 carries, so the last four games work out to roughly 120 carries at about 3.5 yards each. They’re running less, about 30 carries a game instead of nearly 40, and gaining less.
The obvious reason is Kyle Monangai. He got hurt in the Week 4 win over the Jets after carrying 30 times for 146 yards, and he’s out again tonight, with a return expected after the bye. He averages 5.4 yards a carry. D’Andre Swift averages 3.8.
D’Andre Swift Has Become the Bears’ Closer
Swift leads the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns, a career high, and nine of them have come inside the 10-yard line. Monday in Seattle he scored three times in a half, the first Bear to do that since Walter Payton in 1977. He also needed 27 carries to get 69 yards, with no run longer than seven.
That’s a closer’s résumé, and the Bears are cashing it in: they’ve turned 7 of their last 8 goal-to-go chances into touchdowns over the last three games, after going 4 for 11 in the four before that. But a closer isn’t a back who chews up yardage between the 20s. Ben Johnson called the run game “inconsistent” this week and added that first-half rushing has been far less effective than second-half rushing. Tampa Bay won’t wait for the second half.
Tampa Bay Stops the Run, and Runs It Better Than Anyone
The Buccaneers have allowed 80 rushing yards a game, second-fewest in the league. Vita Vea, all 347 pounds of him, is the reason Johnson has already compared him to Jeffery Simmons: a tackle you have to account for on every snap. On paper, it’s the toughest rushing test of the Bears’ season.
Now the twist. Tampa Bay’s own offense is averaging 231.3 rushing yards over its last four games, capped by a franchise-record 324 against Atlanta, a 16-0 win in which Mayfield threw three passes and completed none. The Bucs have called 104 runs and 16 passes over their last two games, and they rank last in the NFL in passing yards per game.
That gives Chicago’s fourth-ranked run defense a simple job. Stop the ground game, with Simmons in the middle, and a Tampa team that has barely thrown has to win through the air.
The Bears don’t need 200 yards to pass the toughest rushing test of their season. They need a first quarter. Chicago’s offense is still third in the league in total yards at 387.3 a game, so this isn’t a crisis. But it’s Sunday night, where the Bears had won only two of their previous 12 coming into the season. If Swift finds room early, the early-season identity is back. If he doesn’t, they’ll find out how far touchdowns alone can carry them.
Game Day: Bucs Present Bears With Their Toughest Rushing Test Yet