The Green Bay Packers‘ playoff probabilities aren’t above 50% despite winning four of their last five games.
The Athletic‘s NFL playoff simulator gives Green Bay just a 47% probability of reaching the postseason, as of 12:17 a.m. on Nov. 2.
The projection comes after the Packers improved to 5-3 with a 27-19 victory over the Carolina Panthers on Thursday, Oct. 29.
Green Bay currently occupies the NFC’s seventh playoff position, but its chances are lower than those of its three NFC North rivals.
The Athletic’s Simulator Gives Packers Just 47% Playoff Probability
Despite their winning record, the Packers were given worse than even odds of cementing a fourth consecutive postseason appearance.
The numbers are striking when compared with Green Bay’s NFC North competition.
The Minnesota Vikings have an 84% playoff probability following their first loss of the season, while the Detroit Lions sit at 76%.
The Chicago Bears are also ahead of Green Bay, with a 74% probability ahead of their Monday Night Football matchup against the Seattle Seahawks on Nov. 2.
That leaves the Packers as the only NFC North team with a projected playoff probability below 50%.
The difference is notable since Green Bay has the same number of victories as Detroit and Chicago. But both rivals have played one fewer game.
The Packers also carry a 1-2 division record because of losses to Minnesota and Detroit earlier this season.
Green Bay’s recent surge has included victories over the Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Panthers, with the team recovering from a 2-2 start.
However, the Packers are fourth in the NFC North despite owning a winning record.
Packers Have Tricky Schedule With Playoff Position at Stake
Green Bay’s upcoming schedule provides an explanation for why its playoff position remains uncertain.
The Packers travel to face the New England Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8, before hosting Minnesota at Lambeau Field on Nov. 15.
New England also holds a 5-3 record after defeating the Miami Dolphins 24-19 on Sunday.
However, The Athletic‘s simulator assigns the Patriots an 84% playoff probability, significantly higher than Green Bay’s figure despite the teams having identical records.
The Packers then go into their bye week before traveling to Los Angeles for a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 25.
Other noteworthy upcoming bouts include the Buffalo Bills on Dec. 13, another meeting with Chicago on Christmas Day and a regular-season finale against Detroit.
Quarterback Jordan Love has helped guide the Packers to victories in four of their past five games, but Green Bay will need to maintain that momentum against increasingly hard competition.
The Packers have reached the playoffs in each of Love’s first three seasons as their starting quarterback.
The franchise, though, has not won the NFC North since 2021.
As of now, however, Green Bay isn’t looking too shabby.
Packers Given Gloomy Playoff Outlook Despite 5-3 Record