Getty Images The Philadelphia Eagles offense lines up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense . (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), after losing five of six games to close out the 2023 regular season, hit the road to take on the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8), in an NFC Wild Card Game on Monday, January 15.
Neither of these teams are entering the playoffs with much momentum, as the Eagles tumbled from closing the month of November as the No. 1 seed in the NFC to beginning the postseason as the No. 5 seed. Meanwhile, Tampa has won five of six, but only one of those victories came against a team that qualified for the playoffs.
Here are five Wild Card game predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:
1. Jalen Hurts’ Struggles Continue
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts operated on the fringes of the MVP conversation during the first half of the season, but faded down the stretch.
Over Philadelphia’s final six games of the season, Hurts mustered only 1,161 yards with five touchdowns to five interceptions with 195 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns while being sacked seven games.
Our model projects another tough evening for Hurts.
Jalen Hurts Projections: 16.1 completions for 175.2 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 sack.
The Heavy Sports’ model projects that the Buccaneers, who enter with the league’s seventh-ranked passing defense, will hold Hurts to below his season everage in each of the major statistical categories above.
2. Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis Shines
Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis has a Super Bowl ring on his finger, and could be in for a dominant evening against the Eagles.
The Eagles arrive in Tampa Bay with DeVonta Smith still dealing with the lingering effects of an ankle injury that kept him out of Philadelphia’s Week 18 clash against the New York Giants. Meanwhile, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding A.J. Brown‘s availability after suffering a knee injury, the stars might be aligning for Davis to have a big game.
Davis will keep the Eagles’ receivers under wraps, according to our model:
Carlton Davis Projections: 4.3 total tackles, including 3.4 solo tackles, 0.9 pass breakups.
After finishing the regular season with 49 total tackles with two interceptions, our model predicts Davis will surpass his season-average in every statistical category.
3. Nicholas Morrow Dominates Postseason Debut
The Eagles made Nick Morrow one of the team’s inactives in Week 18 against the Giants, but the 28-year-old linebacker could be in for a big night against the Buccaneers.
Morrow finished the regular season with 95 total tackles and three sacks, but our model expects an uptick in his production in the Wild Card Game.
Nicholas Morrow Projections: 7.5 total tackles, 5 solo tackles, .7 pass breakups
If Morrow hits the totals projected by our model, he would surpass his season average in each of the categories above.
4. Baker Mayfield Makes Case as Buccaneers’ Future
Baker Mayfield played his way into the forefront of the NFL Comeback Player of The Year conversation in 2023, but still faces a bit of an uncertain future in Tampa Bay.
A strong performance, and especially leading a playoff victory, against the Eagles would go a long way towards convincing the Buccaneers’ front office there is upside to building around Mayfield.
Our model projects Mayfield to have a strong showing against the Eagles’ 31st ranked passing defense:
Baker Mayfield Projections: 23.4 completions for 270.6 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, 68.6 completion percentage, 3.4 sacks.
Mayfield finished the regular season passing for 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, while completing 64.3 percent of his passes.
The Heavy Sports’ model projects Mayfield to surpass his season average in each of the categories above.
5. The Eagles Will Win by Nearly a Touchdown
All seven of the Las Vegas sports books in our database have installed the Eagles as a field goal favorite on Monday night at Raymond James Stadium.
Monday’s NFC Wild Card game is a rematch from the Eagles’ 25-11 Week 3 victory in Tampa Bay, but this is a significantly different Philadelphia team that limped to the finish line to close out the regular season.
However, our model has a projected point spread of Eagles by a full six points. That differs from the seven major sportsbooks in our database, all of which like Philadelphia as three-point favorites.
Here’s a look at how the model compares: