With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, predictions of team seedings are increasingly turning into realistic standings in upcoming conference championship tournaments and in the NCAA March Madness men’s basketball bracket.
Here are the latest and most likely March Madness bracket predictions from On3.
Duke Holds Strong At The Number One Seed in NCAA Tournament Rankings
GettyCaleb Foster #1 of the Duke Blue Devils drives to the basket between Jestin Porter #1 and Carter Welling #22 of the Clemson Tigers during the second half of the game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 14, 2026 in Durham, North Carolina.
Using the NET Rankings analytic algorithm to assess each team’s quadrants – aka wins and losses reviewed via four categories – the NCAA places the top 68 Division 1 men’s basketball teams into the national March Madness tournament bracket. Before the official bracket distribution can be determined, all remaining regular season games plus each conference’s title tournament must be played. With just a few more rounds remaining before Selection Sunday for March Madness, here are the current predicted seedings and bracket placements as of March 3, 2026.
Note: Teams in non-Power Five conferences are listed with their conferences next to the regional rankings.
Projected 1-Line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
Last Four In: Indiana, Ohio State, Auburn, New Mexico
Last Four Byes: Texas A&M, Santa Clara, UCF, SMU
First Four Out: VCU, San Diego State (SDSU), TCU, Cincinnati
For tournament play and the bracket predictions, here’s what is likely to happen at each round of the March Madness competition based on the current trending statistics of each team.
East (Washington)
Greenville, SC – Venue: Bon Secours Wellness Arena
- #1 Duke (ACC) vs #16 Howard (MEAC)/Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Georgia
Philadelphia, PA – Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
- #5 St. John’s vs #12 South Florida (American)
- #Alabama vs #13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Oklahoma City, OK – Venue: Paycom Center
- #6 Louisville vs #11 Ohio State/New Mexico
- #3 Iowa State vs #4 Troy (SBC)
St. Louis, MO – Venue:
- #7 Kentucky vs #10 UCF
- #2 Illinois vs #15 Central Arkansas (ASUN)
Midwest (Chicago)
Philadelphia, PA – Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
- #1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs #16 Wright State (Horizon)
- #8 Clemson vs #9 Texas
Greenville, SC – Venue: Bon Secours Wellness Arena
- #6 St. Mary’s vs #11 Texas A&M
- #3 Nebraska vs #14 Navy (Patriot)
Tampa, FL – Venue: Benchmark International Arena
- #5 Arkansas vs #12 Belmont (MVC)
- #4 Virginia vs #13 Liberty (CUSA)
Oklahoma City, OK – Venue: Paycom Center
- #7 Villanova vs #10 UCLA
- #2 Houston vs #15 Portland State (Big Sky)
South (Houston)
Buffalo, NY – Venue: KeyBank Center
- #1 UConn (Big East) vs 16 LIU/UMBC
- #8 Wisconsin vs #9 NC State
Portland, OR – Venue: Moda Center
- #5 Tennessee vs #12 Yale (Ivy)
- #4 Kansas vs #13 High Point (Big South)
Buffalo, NY – Venue: KeyBank Center
- #6 BYU vs #11 Miami Ohio (MAC)
- #3 Michigan State vs #14 North Dakota State/NDSU (Summit)
Tampa, FL – Venue: Benchmark International Arena
- #7 St. Louis (A10) vs #10 SMU
- #2 Florida vs #15 Merrimack (MAAC)
West (San Jose)
San Diego, CA – Venue: Viejas Arena
- #1 Arizona (Big 12) vs #16 Tennessee State (OVC)
- #8 Miami FL vs #9 Missouri
Portland, OR – Venue: Moda Center
- #5 Vanderbilt vs #12 Stephen F Austin (Southland)
- #4 Gonzaga (WCC) vs #13 Utah Valley (WAC)
San Diego, CA – Venue: Viejas Arena
- #6 North Carolina vs #11 Indiana or #11 Auburn
- #3 Texas Tech vs #14 Hawaii (Big West)
St. Louis, MO – Venue: Enterprise Center
- #7 Utah State (MWC) vs #10 Santa Clara
- #2 Purdue vs #15 ETSU (SoCon)
Key Dates for 2026 NCAA March Madness Tournament
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 07: Seth Trimble #7 of the North Carolina Tar Heels drives to the basket against Patrick Ngongba #21 of the Duke Blue Devils during the second half of the game at Dean E. Smith Center on February 07, 2026 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Before things officially kick off on Selection Sunday, here are some of the key dates to know ahead of the 2026 NCAA March Madness tournament:
- Selection Sunday – March 15, 2026
- First Four – March 17-18, 2026
- First Round – March 19-20, 2026
- Second Round – March 21-22, 2026
- Sweet 16 – March 26-27, 2026
- Elite Eight – March 28-29, 2026
- Final Four – April 4, 2026
- NCAA Championship Game – April 6, 2026
Bracket & Seeding Predictions for March Madness NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – March 3, 2026