The Chicago Cubs face an important offseason as they attempt to rebuild their starting rotation, and one prediction has a former All-Star leaving Chicago for a National League rival.
Left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga is entering free agency after spending three seasons with the Cubs, and his next contract could take him to a surprising destination.
In his November 4 free-agent predictions for Bleacher Report, MLB analyst Tim Kelly selected the Miami Marlins as Imanaga’s next team, projecting a two-year, $34 million contract.
While the prediction doesn’t establish any actual negotiations between Imanaga and Miami, the reasoning behind the potential move raises some interesting questions about the pitcher’s future.
For Chicago, losing Imanaga would add another complication to an offseason already filled with uncertainty surrounding its pitching staff.
Cubs All-Star Shota Imanaga Predicted to Join Marlins in $34 Million Deal
Imanaga made an immediate impression upon arriving in Chicago in 2024.
The Japanese left-hander earned All-Star honors during his rookie campaign, finishing with a 15-3 record, 2.91 ERA, and a fifth-place finish in National League Cy Young voting.
However, his performance over the following two seasons hasn’t quite matched those impressive beginnings.
Imanaga finished 2026 with an 11-10 record and 3.77 ERA across 32 starts, striking out 174 batters in 174 1/3 innings.
The biggest concern has been his tendency to surrender home runs.
Imanaga allowed 35 homers in 2026 after surrendering 31 in 2025. His combined 66 home runs allowed over those two seasons tied for the most among MLB starting pitchers during that span.
That vulnerability helps explain Kelly’s choice of Miami.
LoanDepot Park has been one of baseball’s more difficult venues for hitting home runs, potentially giving Imanaga a better environment to limit the long ball.
Despite his shortcomings, Imanaga has demonstrated that he can handle a substantial workload while providing quality innings.
The more immediate issue would be losing another dependable starting option to a fellow National League club.
Cubs Face Difficult Rotation Decisions Ahead of 2027 Season
Imanaga’s potential departure is only one piece of a much larger challenge facing Chicago.
The Cubs have several starting pitchers entering free agency, including Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd, Clay Holmes and David Peterson.
That leaves president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer with important decisions about which pitchers to retain and where to look for replacements.
Chicago could explore expensive free-agent additions, pursue trades, or attempt to re-sign some of its familiar faces.
Imanaga’s situation presents an especially interesting dilemma.
His home-run struggles and declining effectiveness since 2024 are legitimate concerns, but he has still produced a 3.45 ERA over 86 career starts with the Cubs.
Those are rock-solid numbers and might not be easy for the Cubs to replace, especially because of how many rotation spots might need to be addressed.
Other clubs are likely to be interested in Imanaga given his proven track record. Smaller market teams might be more willing to overlook his home-run weakness, especially a team like Miami with LoanDepot Park.
A reunion remains possible, but Kelly’s Miami prediction highlights how easily Chicago could find itself competing with other teams for Imanaga’s services.
Whether Imanaga returns or moves elsewhere, the Cubs have plenty of work ahead of them before the 2027 season begins.
Cubs All-Star Predicted to Leave Chicago for NL Rival in $34 Million Move