The New York Mets aren’t guaranteed to have Bo Bichette on their roster for the 2027 MLB season.
That’s by design in Bichette’s contract, which features an opt-out this offseason and another next offseason. If Bichette wants to leave the deal and hit free agency, he can.
That’s going to lead to an offseason full of predictions about where Bichette will end up upon leaving the Mets.
The latest came from Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller, predicting that Bichette will leave the Mets and be replaced by Japanese star Teruaki Sato.
It certainly captures some attention as what Miller calls a “bold prediction,” and he does acknowledge the complicating factors.
But let’s be realistic about Bichette’s future for a minute.
Bo Bichette Contract Opt-Out Details
Bichette’s payday for next season is $42 million if he stays under his contract and plays for the Mets.
He does get $5 million as a buyout if he opts-out (which essentially works out to $2.5 million over the next two years when he could make $84 million), so there’s a bit of savings.
But look at what Miller writes, acknowledging the reality:
“Notably, Bichette gets a $5M buyout if he opts out, so he’d actually be leaving two years and $79M on the table. Even that might sound slightly insane after the disappointing first year that he had in Queens. At any rate, there’s no realistic chance he fares better than a $39.5M AAV if he re-enters free agency.”
“There’s no realistic chance he fares better” is an accurate assessment.
Why would Bichette opt out?
Unless he’s lying about how he enjoyed playing in New York in comments he made earlier this offseason to the Post, it’s hard to believe he’d take that risk.
The Mets may not mind. Bichette had a rough season and was a part of a bumpy ride as a whole in Queens.
But from Bichette’s perspective, with another opt-out possible next offseason, it makes way more sense to just bank on the 2027 payday and see if he has a bounceback campaign that can earn him more money in a year’s time.
“However, in a year where Jazz Chisholm Jr. is arguably the second-most or third-most coveted free agent hitter available, a 28-year-old Bichette who has been worth more than 20 WAR in his career could probably fetch another nine-figure contract,” Miller writes.
The weak free agent hitter class is the best argument for Bichette. It still might not be good enough to take away the chance to make $40 million in the season ahead.
Lockout Impact
There also are going to be new collective bargaining negotiations and a lockout that could last for months. On that front, does Bichette want to risk opting out but then being an uncertain free agent for the whole lockout?
It’s a lot easier to keep the huge payday secure while awaiting the resumption of baseball.
Unless Bichette knows for certain he’s got a great opportunity lined up elsewhere, this seems like the last offseason he’d want to head to the open market when he already has a big contract waiting for him if he stays put.
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