Perhaps no player provided a spark for the 2026 Philadelphia Phillies like second baseman Luis Arraez. Acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline, Arraez made a great impression right away with clutch hits as he lived up to his billing as the premier contact bat in MLB. Now he is a free agent and while Philadelphia would surely love to reunite with him this offseason, the latest contract projection from Keith Law of The Athletic may give them pause.
Law ranked his top 40 free agents this week and Arraez came in at No. 5 on his list. Here is what Law wrote about the left-handed contact bat:
“Last winter, I thought he’d be overrated because of the batting average, but the market underpriced him even more than it seemed at the time, and now I think he’s going to be one of the better values because he’s only entering his age-30 season and his game does not depend much on bat or foot speed, two variables that can decline quickly with age. He should get four years and north of $100 million, maybe approaching $120 million.”
That is a pretty huge prediction. Law essentially thinks Arraez has a floor of four years for $100 million and that he will probably make more than that, potentially even closer to $30 million per year which is remarkable.
Keep in mind that the Giants signed him to a one-year, $12 million deal last offseason. He was coming off a bit of a down year by his standards after hitting .292/.327/.392 with the San Diego Padres and the league clearly did not think he could play respectable defense at second base, but the Giants gave him a shot and he proved that he can not only hold his own at second, but he could even be elite as he ranked fifth in MLB when it comes to Outs Above Average.
How much would the Phillies pay Luis Arraez?
He is certainly due a raise over his 2025 salary, but a long-term contract like Law envisions is out of step with what MLB Trade Rumors predicts as they see him signing a three-year, $48 million deal which is an AAV of $16 million. This is part of the conundrum with Arraez: his value really is in the eye of the beholder more than it is with other players. Do you value contact and defense more than power? Then maybe you’d be willing to give Arraez $25 million per year. But in an age when OPS is king for a lot of front offices would a team be willing to throw that much down for a guy who had 185 hits last season, but 139 of them were singles?
Specifically, can the Phillies afford to give out a contract like that right now when they already have a lot of money committed to other stars on the team? Probably not. The only realistic path to a reunion is if Law is grossly overestimating what Arraez will make in free agency. The Phillies could probably do a three-year, $60 million deal or something like that, but anything over $100 million is probably going to be too rich for them and probably a lot of other teams too.
Phillies May Be Priced Out Of Luis Arraez Reunion After Recent Contract Prediction