The NASCAR Cup Series championship is officially down to three drivers. And with one race remaining, Kyle Larson is in a position his two remaining challengers can only envy.
Following Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway, Larson, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin are the only drivers still mathematically eligible to win the 2026 Cup Series title.
Larson carries a commanding 67-point lead into next weekend’s season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with Bell sitting second and Hamlin another three points behind.
The numbers tell an even more daunting story for the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. Larson could clinch his third Cup Series championship before the first stage at Homestead is complete.
Kyle Larson Could Clinch NASCAR Championship in Stage 1
Larson doesn’t need another victory to secure the championship. In fact, he could finish well outside the top 20 at Homestead and still walk away with the title.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver needs just nine points to clinch the championship outright. Because Larson holds the tiebreaker over his remaining challengers, eight stage points would also be enough.
-Larson owns tiebreaker -Larson clinches with nine points at Homestead, which is 28th place with no stage points (eight stage points clinches it) -Bell needs to win and earn 14 stage points for any chance
That creates an extraordinary possibility: If Larson finishes third or better in Stage 1, he can clinch the 2026 Cup Series championship before the race reaches its second stage.
Even if he earns no stage points, a 28th-place finish would be enough to secure the title.
Larson finished ninth at Martinsville, where teammate William Byron earned the victory. It wasn’t a dominant afternoon for the No. 5 team, but the result left Larson with an overwhelming advantage heading into the final weekend.
Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin Need More Than a Win
For Bell and Hamlin, simply winning the season finale won’t be enough.
Bell enters Homestead 67 points behind Larson. To have any chance of winning the championship, he must win the race and collect at least 14 stage points.
Hamlin faces an even steeper climb. Trailing Larson by 70 points, the veteran driver needs a victory and at least 17 stage points to keep his championship hopes alive.
Both scenarios also require Larson to fall short of the points needed to clinch.
Bell moved into second place in the standings following Martinsville, passing Hamlin despite finishing 10th. Hamlin placed sixth after an eventful afternoon that included contact between the two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates.
Chase Briscoe, who sits fourth in the standings, is among the drivers now mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
For Larson, the path to a third championship couldn’t be much clearer. He can settle the matter early with a strong opening stage or simply collect enough points over the course of the afternoon.
Bell and Hamlin, meanwhile, need nearly everything to go their way.
Three drivers remain in the championship race. But heading into Homestead, one holds almost all the cards.
NASCAR Championship Race Down to Three Drivers After Martinsville