Have we seen the last of peak Nikola Jokić? Bill Simmons seems to think so. During a Nov. 3 episode of his self-titled podcast, The Ringer founder pointed to the idea that the three-time MVP may, in fact, have seen his best days pass him by.
“I almost don’t want to do it. Getting emotional. I think we have to pour one out for apex Joker,” Simmons explained of the Denver Nuggets center. “I’m not writing off Joker. I’m really concerned about him post-injury last year. The way he looked, when he came back, how he looked in the playoffs, and how he looks this year because he can’t shoot threes anymore. They’re not going in. When he came back from his injury last year, 31 percent from three. Playoffs, 19 percent. This year, 22 percent.”
Jokić’s Shooting Decline Dates Back to Last Season
While Simmons’ prognosis seems bleak, he’s not wrong about the numbers we’ve seen from Joker dating back to last season. After hyperextending and bruising his left knee last December, Jokić sat out for 16 games. He returned at the end of January, and he averaged 25.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on 53.3 percent from the field, 31.9 percent from three, and 81 percent from the free-throw line for his remaining 33 games. Pretty stellar stuff. But he shot only 19% from three in the playoffs, when they lost to a heavily injured Minnesota Timberwolves team in six games. He had shot 43.5 percent from three before the injury.
The dropoffs were troubling, but being that Joker had averaged 26.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.3 assists on 58.3/37.8/82.4 percent splits and 66 percent true shooting for the six preceding seasons, there was reason to believe he’d regain his previous form this season. But through six games, he has not.
Denver’s Star Is Still Struggling Beyond the 3-Point Line
This season, Jokić is putting up 22.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists on 47.2/22.6/88.5 splits. Not only has his poor three-point shooting continued, but his rebounds and raw points totals have dropped, too. His true shooting mark of 55 percent is an even more telling single number; going from 66 TS% to 55% is a drop from historically elite scoring efficiency to below the league average.
It should be noted that Jokić’s raw numbers and advanced statistics still point to a roughly All-NBA level player; a 20-point near triple-double remains an impressive mark. Still, his shooting woes allow defenses to sag off of him, thus helping prevent the Nuggets from becoming the supercharged offense they have been in the past. They will need more if they hope to seriously contend — or even make the playoffs. At press time, their record sits at 3-3.
Following the Nuggets’ loss to the Portland Trail Blazers Monday night, Jokić addressed his shooting woes to reporters. He did not cite his past knee injury as a reason for his continued slump, and he even found a sort of silver lining to this experience.
“When I’m shooting and I’m practicing, I’m kind of making it, but I’m not making it in the game,” he told reporters. “But I think the struggle, it’s a privilege. Pushing to get better and pushing to think of what’s the problem.”
Bill Simmons Thinks Apex Nikola Jokić May Be Gone