Welcome back to the NBA trade rumor mill, where we recognize that free agency and the trade market are intertwined. The Knicks know it–plus looking at Kyrie’s injury and AD’s contract demand. Read on …
The good thing about rubber-stamp NBA extensions, which has been the way business has been getting done in the league for the last 10 years or so, is that both teams and players get to dodge the uncertainty of free agency. Teams do not like free agency because they feel they almost always have to overpay for good players, and players don’t like free agency because there can be wild swings in what might be available on the market and from whom.
But the subtext of what is happening with the Knicks these days is a sort of game of chicken: The Knicks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Miles McBride are all in a car heading for a cliff. The cliff is free agency.
The Knicks are low-balling Towns because his only other option is to leave in free agency, which hurts everyone involved. But the Knicks just need to get him to blink first.
Towns can opt out of the final year and $61 million on his contract next summer and hit free agency. Hart has a team option and could be a free agent thereafter. McBride will just enter free agency because his contract is up. The presumption is that they hold significant power here because they can leave in free agency. There’s more to it than that, and that’s where the Knicks have some leverage.
Knicks Stars Won’t Have Great Free-Agent Options
Suppose the Knicks said to Towns, “OK, leave in free agency.” It’s crazy–again, a game of chicken–because the Knicks would risk losing him for nothing, and losing his salary slot in the process. But the Knicks are a longshot to trade Towns this year, and if things just remain as they are, Towns would hit free agency.
He would then be able to sign for four years and around $250 million. But where? The only two teams that surely have enough cap space to sign Towns to that deal, as things stand, would be Brooklyn and Chicago. The Warriors could possibly get there, and that would be a worthy option for Towns. But the other teams that could, maybe, carve out cap room are the Clippers, the Grizzlies and the Bucks.
Is Towns going to go from the champs to the Nets? The Clippers? Would those teams want to invest a max slot in him at this stage?
That’s the bet the Knicks are making with Towns, and, to a lesser extent, Hart. Take our deal or go to the Clippers. It could be an effective ploy, in the end.
Anthony Davis’ Max Mystery
There are few around the NBA who feel that Anthony Davis of the Wizards is going to get the full, four-year, $275 million max deal he wants, whether from Washington or from somewhere else. Davis and the Wizards have shelved extension talks until the season gets rolling, as he hopes to show he is healthy and prove his value. But even if he plays well, that deal will be hard to find.
Davis turns 33 in March and has a player option next season for $61 million. He can opt out and go to free agency, where he could sign that four-year, $250 million contract somewhere.
“It would be tough to go to your owner and say, ‘We’re gonna give this guy who has played 70-something games in the last two years $250 million until he is 37 years old,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “All the owners are spooked by the second apron, I don’t know how you get that past them.”
Kyrie Irving Is an NBA Trade Rumors Fixture
Well, we know now why Kyrie Irving of the Mavericks took as long as he did to come back from the ACL surgery he had 18 months ago.
From Kevin Gray of DLLS Cowboys: “Mavericks G Kyrie Irving revealed today that he had a Grade 2 calf strain during last season in December that set him back 8 weeks as he was recovering from his torn ACL.”
NBA types are especially wary of calf strains, as they can sometimes signal an Achilles tendon problem. Irving and the Mavericks did well to catch it in time before damage could be done, and the delay in his ACL rehab was worth it. But Irving remains a top NBA trade rumor name–his health and production will be monitored very closely into January and February.
On to the Big Board …
NBA Trade Rumors: Guards on the Market
Let’s start the Big Board with the guards …
De’Aaron Fox, Spurs. (Remaining contract: four years, $223 million). We’re putting De’Aaron Fox back on the board because though it will be tough to trade a guy with four years and $223 million on his upcoming contract, he does figure to crop back up in NBA trade rumors if, in fact, he plays well coming out of the gate. He does not have a long-term future in San Antonio, but he does have a long-term contract.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: two years, $82 million, player option in second year.) To be clear, nothing is imminent on a Kyrie Irving trade and there have not been active discussions on moving him. The guy is coming off a torn ACL, after all. Like a lot of veterans, the idea is to play him through January, build value and see if something can be done at the deadline. The Mavs won’t be afraid to keep him around, but they’re configuring the roster around youth.
Darius Garland, Clippers. (Remaining contract: two years, $87 million.) The Clippers are licking their wounds after the five-first-round-pick penalty from the Aspiration-Kawhi Leonard scandal settled in, and while it is not clear which path the team will take next–or the ramifications from the fact that their owner and GM are currently suspended–collecting draft picks and cap space would be a good idea. Garland is the only player on the roster who could potentially warrant a package of two first-rounders though his injury history would be an obstacle.
Ja Morant, Blazers. (Remaining contract: Two years, $87 million.) Hard to imagine Morant easing all the fears teams would have about him by February, but a summer trade would make some sense.
Jrue Holiday, Blazers. (Remaining contract: Two years, $72 million, player option.) He’s the best realistic trade chip the Blazers have and would be coveted by contenders if Portland decides its backcourt is too crowded. If Damian Lillard and Ja Morant play well, and Shaedon Sharpe comes back, moving Holiday makes sense.
Dejounte Murray, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: two years, $63 million, player option.) Teams will want to see how he looks now that he should be fully healed from his Achilles tendon injury, but expect him to be a trade candidate as the deadline nears.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets. (Remaining contract; three years, $161 million.) Maybe? It’s not likely to happen now, but the finances in Denver are grim. It’s not hard to see a Jaylen Brown situation here. The Nuggets can continue to make changes around the margins, but with Nikola Jokic’s contract situation looming, they might need to do something drastic.
Mikal Bridges, Knicks. (Remaining contract: four years, $150 million.) It would make the most sense for the Knicks to trade Bridges if they seek payroll flexibility going forward, so we’ll slide him on this list. But the Knicks appear determined to try to hammer the team under the second apron for as long as it can stay there–there will be a breaking point, though, and the Karl-Anthony Towns extension is just the beginning.
Ty Jerome, Grizzlies. (Remaining contract: two years, $19 million, including player option.) Jerome took advantage of the mess in Memphis last year and averaged 19.7 points, shooting 42.0% from the 3-point line. The Grizzlies will need to thin out their roster, and the 29-year-old Jerome really does not fit here. He would have good value if Memphis wants to flip him for future assets, but the Grizz do not have much else at point guard.
Jalen Suggs, Magic. (Remaining contract: four years, $115 million, team option.) Suggs has been in the NBA five years, and had one good season as a two-way guard who could knock down 3s (2023-24, averaging 12.6 points and 39.7% 3-point shooting). Every other year in the league has been ugly and injury-riddled for Suggs. Unfortunately for the Magic, Suggs’ one good year was when he was up for an extension. We can’t rule out Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner trades, but only if the season truly goes South.
Dalton Knecht, Lakers. (Remaining contract: two years, $10 million, including two team options.) Knecht showed some promise as a rookie but fell off in Year 2 and is now a contract filler in a potential trade. It has been surprising that no team has been willing to gamble on his upside–he is only 25. If the Lakers can’t move him, he could be outright cut.
Jaden Hardy, Lakers. (Remaining contract: one year, $6 million.) The Lakers need to drop a player, and Hardy is a good candidate if they can find a taker.
NBA Trade Rumors: Wing Candidates
Everybody needs wings, and good ones are hard to find …
Josh Hart, Knicks. (Remaining contract: two years, $43 million, team option.) Someone will have to go for the Knicks, and Hart would not be preferred, but he is possible. Given his contract and his overall usefulness, he would have plenty of takers.
OG Anunoby, Knicks. (Remaining contract: three years, $136 million, player option.) If someone has to go from the Knicks to make the finances work under the second apron, Anunoby would be the third least likely to do so–he showed his versatility and value during the playoffs. But he would also be the most desirable possible trade candidate on the Knicks roster, giving them a chance to recoup their losses and add assets. Longshot, but not impossible.
Trey Murphy, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: three years, $88 million.) There have been rumblings that the Pelicans would deal Murphy, and equal rumblings have indicated they won’t. Murphy is a favorite in NBA trade rumors, but New Orleans is slow-playing any potential trade.
Michael Porter Jr., Nets. (Remaining contract: one year, $40 million, partial guarantee.) Assuming the Nets’ contract talks do not reignite with Porter, he will be a top trade focus all winter. His extension talks appear to be faltering, though they are not dead. He is a fringe All-Star, though, and is seeking to be paid like one. If the Nets do not want to go too far on a contract, the question would be whether another team would, and what the Nets could get in return.
Brandon Ingram, Raptors/Clippers. (Remaining contract: two years, $82 million, player option.) The Clippers should be seeking to do what they can to pile up draft picks, and moving off of Brandon Ingram next offseason could fetch them one. But he had offseason foot surgery, and it remains to be seen how that will affect him.
Moses Moody, Warriors. (Remaining contract: two years, $26 million.) Moody is potentially going to be ready for the start of the season, and is said to be staying put. But if the Warriors do anything trade-wise this summer, speculation holds it will involve Moody.
Derrick Jones Jr., Clippers. (Remaining contract: one year, $10 million.) Jones is a defensive ace still, and his expiring contract gives the Clippers some wiggle room to move him. They’re caught in the Aspiration pause, however.
Kyle Kuzma, Bucks. (Remaining contract: one year, $20 million,) His expiring contract is attractive and if the Bucks pull a sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson, Bennedict Mathurin or Jonathan Kuminga, he could be involved.
DeAndre Hunter, Kings. (Remaining contract: one year, $25 million.) The Kings want to keep him as an expiring contract they could potentially flip, but he’s being mentioned as a possible target. If Sacto can get back an asset without taking long-term money, he could be dealt at the deadline.
Royce O’Neale, Hornets. (Remaining contract: two years, $21 million,) The Hornets still have some sorting to do. O’Neale is not a long-term piece, of course, but he has value. The team could hang onto him, see how he fits and flip him at the deadline.
Jake LaRavia, Lakers. (Remaining contract: one year, $6 million.) Hustles, plays every game, but inconsistent. His contract makes him an attractive piece, though, as the Lakers are still figuring out the back end of their roster.
Herb Jones, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: four years, $82 million, including player option.) Jones is a popular name on the market, but the Pelicans are said to want two first-round picks, and with Jones having struggled with injuries and his 3-point shot in the past two seasons, that’s too steep. His remaining contract scares off potential suitors, too.
Cam Johnson, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: one year, $23 million.) The Peyton Watson move probably means Johnson stays put, but he will be very tradeable in the coming months before the deadline. Johnson struggled in his lone season in Denver, and he has been a prominent feature on the NBA trade rumor mill for years now. But teams wanted the Nuggets to include picks in a Johnson deal, and that was not happening. He still has enough of a reputation around the league to warrant trade interest, but the apron-addled Nuggets value the fact that he has an expiring contract. They need that space for Nikola Jokic next summer.
PJ Washington, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: 4 years, $90 million.) Like Daniel Gafford, Washington is aging out of the Mavericks’ timeline, as he turns 28 this summer. He’s a stretch 4 who plays good defense, but his shooting has been suspect–he made just 32.5% of his 3s last year. Like Gafford, they’re hoping to get a first-round pick in a deal for him, but the contract is prohibitive and the production is not worth it.
NBA Trade Rumors: Center/Power Forward Market
And of course, there are the big guys on the NBA trade rumor mill …
Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks. (Remaining contract: two years, $118 million, player option.) The pressure has been ratcheted up, and the Towns-Knicks marriage is getting more and more fragile. Still, it is a very slim chance that the guy who takes the fall for the Knicks’ unwillingness to go into the second apron will be Towns–he is too valuable. His contract extension, though, could be the catalyst for a major Knicks trade, and we can’t rule out the possibility that Towns himself will be on the move for the right package.
Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves. (Remaining contract: two years, $74.5 million, player option.) It would take some seriously fast development from Joan Beringer to make the Wolves comfortable with moving Gobert, but we can’t rule that out.
Kristaps Porzingis, Warriors. (Remaining contract: two years, $40 million, team option.) Porzingis could be useful as an expiring contract on the trade market, but with no teams tanking this season, it might be hard to find a deal that brings back anything of value.
Paolo Banchero, Magic. (Remaining contract: five years, $245 million, player option.) Good luck finding a taker for that deal. But if the Magic continue to flop, he will be a big name on the NBA trade rumor mill.
Myles Turner, Bucks. (Remaining contract: Three years, $84 million, player option,) We’ve been back and forth on Turner as a trade candidate for two reasons: One, the Bucks don’t want to give him up now because the team does not want to fall off completely with Giannis Antetokounmpo gone. He is also coming off a bad year, so he needs time to rebuild value. And, two, Turner is still on a prohibitive contract that scared teams off this summer. If he gets a good start going, he will be a viable cadidate in January and February.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: three years, $110 million.) The Nuggets will have a second-apron crunch next year, as has been well documented. That is one reason they did not want to move off the expiring contract of Cam Johnson this summer, and probably won’t do so this season–they value the $23 million Johnson will leave behind when he hits free agency. The Nuggets plan to give Nikola Jokic a $360 million extension next summer, but they’re going to need more flexibility. Dealing Gordon could do it, though his contract and health issues make that difficult.
Jalen Smith, Bulls. (Remaining contract: one year, $9.4 million.) There has been interest in Smith, and the Bulls could cash in on him as the season gets rolling and teams clearly have big man needs.
Nikola Jovic, Heat. (Remaining contract: four years, $62 million.) There is trepidation about trading for Jovic, who is certainly available and is still only 23 years old. But the remaining contract is a hefty bite for teams to take.
Grant Williams, Hornets. (Remaining contract: one year, $15 million.) The Hornets are expected to be busy on the trade market this season, and Williams’ expiring deal has some value. He can still be a worthy big man off the bench.
Zeke Nnaji, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: four years, $32 million.) The Nuggets shopped Nnaji this summer, but there were no takers. He does not have a weighty contract, but four years is lengthy for him. We’re keeping him on the candidate list, but his value isn’t great.
Obi Toppin, Pacers. (Remaining contract: two years, $31 million.) A foot injury torpedoed his season last year, and even when healthy, he’s a bench player who give you about 18 minutes a night. The Pacers will likely do something to get themselves under the luxury tax, either now or at the deadline.
Jarred Vanderbilt, Lakers. (Remaining contract: two years, $26 million.) We’re putting Vanderbilt into the category of players who were not dealt this summer but could go at the deadline–if they can show some life and revive their value early in the year. The expectation is that Vanderbilt will play, and if he earns back a bit of JJ Redick’s trust, he could regain some value on the market.
Daniel Gafford, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: three years, $54 million.) Gafford will be 28 in October, and with the Mavs focused on getting younger, moving him along has been one of the team’s goals.
NBA Trade Rumors: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis & Knicks Stars’ Plan Bs