Getty Knicks star OG Anunoby (left) and Julius Randle
It is an old-school NBA adage that perhaps gets lost somewhat in this era of load management, but it’s still valid: Games played is one of the most important stats on a player’s docket. Rest is one thing, but players who have a proclivity for injury are still subject to red flags around the NBA. And the series of injuries Knicks wing OG Anunoby has had in his career is certainly worthy of a red flag.
What’s more, for Anunoby, the flags are coming at the worst possible time, just as he is heading into free agency with an eye on what should be one of the top contracts doled out this summer.
Anunoby is out again with pain in the same elbow he had surgically repaired last month. He had missed 18 games, and returned for three games. But after he shot 1-for-8 against Sacramento on Monday, Anunoby went back to New York to have the injury looked at again, and will miss yet more time before he comes back.
For a guy who has missed 73 games in the last three seasons, injuries are undoubtedly a concern.
“It has to worry you,” one Eastern Conference general manager told Heavy Sports. “He is going to get a lot of money from the Knicks, but he is starting to look like a player who is just injury-prone and that makes you nervous, paying him that much.”
OG Anunoby-Khris Middleton Comparison?
The next question, of course, is … how much?
One Western Conference executive said that Anunoby’s effectiveness as a two-way player is reminiscent of the production from Bucks veteran Khris Middleton, and said, “He’s probably around where Middleton is, maybe just a little more.”
The comparison is apt, if a bit flawed. Middleton is averaging 15.0 points and 48.8% shooting, as well as 38.1% 3-point shooting. He is having his own injury woes, like Anunoby, who is averaging 14.9 points on 49.2% shooting and 37.1% 3-point shooting. Anunoby, though, doesn’t have the background of Middleton, who has four 20-points-per-game scoring seasons to his credit.
But Anunoby is a more fearsome defender, and that should factor into his price. Middleton is on a three-year, $93 million contract with incentives that could run it to more than $100 million. If Anunoby takes a four-year deal at slightly more, he’d be looking at $150 million.
“With the injuries and the fact that there might not be a ton of other options out there for him, that is where I’d try to lock him up,” the West exec said.
Knicks Could ‘Break the Bank’ on Big Contract
Indeed, the potential suitors for Anunoby are limited—the Sixers? Orlando?—which gives the Knicks some leverage. The injury woes do, too.
But Anunoby can also walk into a negotiation with the Knicks knowing they absolutely need to re-sign him. New York gave up R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to get Anunoby and both of those players have flourished in their half-season with Toronto. The Knicks simply can’t afford to make the deal for Anunoby, then watch him walk to another team.
“He will try to break the bank there,” the Eastern Conference GM said. “Why not? They can’t afford to lose him. Not a max deal or anything, but I think from his side, it is going to look more like $40 million per year, something like four years and $160 million.”
Red flags, indeed.