For most of football history, the Carolina Panthers would’ve kicked the extra point in this spot.
On Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field, the Panthers were down 14 points until Jalen Coker had a great catch-and-run on fourth down to find the end zone.
OK, so the math would go — you’re down 14, you get 6 on the touchdown, you kick the extra point to pull within 7. Then you do it again. Right?
Well, that’s not what the Panthers did.
They went for the 2-point conversion. Bryce Young caught the snap in shotgun, moved around, and fired a pass that was eventually deflected out of the back of the end zone.
So with the failed 2-point try. the Panthers remained down 27-19, an eight-point deficit when they could’ve been down seven with less than six minutes to go.
The analytics will say to go for it there, and believe it or not, it actually makes sense.
Sadly for the Panthers, it didn’t end up mattering. They didn’t score again to make it relevant.
Why Did The Panthers Go For 2 Down 8?
The Panthers went for 2 down 8 because it actually gives you a better chance of winning the game.
Teams play to win the game, as the saying goes, not to tie it.
A successful 2-point conversion there means another touchdown — which you’re going to need anyway — would combine with an extra point at that time for the lead.
The unsuccessful attempt at least lets the Panthers know that they still need 8, so the next time they score, they’ll go for 2 again.
The general thinking is that 2-point conversions are close to a 50-50 proposition — so the Panthers hope to get the first one, but if they don’t, then they believe they can get the second one.
The path of two touchdowns and two extra points only guarantees (if the defense gets stops) overtime, which in and of itself is probably a 50-50 proposition — and maybe worse on the road.
So by going for 2, your chances of winning in regulation might increase, and your chances of getting to OT don’t decrease that much.
The potential one concern point was that the Panthers entered this try just 2-for-10 on 2-point conversions under Dave Canales. But that’s not a huge sample, and they still played what they felt were the right percentages here.
Process Vs. Result
The key to this is the idea of process vs. result.
Teams need to approach things with the right process, and the numbers here say this was the right call.
In a small sample of a 17-game NFL season, though, there aren’t that many times for it to happen — so the results don’t always add up to the process.
If you had the chance to do this 100 times, the numbers say it would work more often than the alternative approach.
But for just one time, both outcomes can happen, and that makes it tougher to deal with for fans.
All the team can do is the correct play, though, and this would be shown by the numbers to be the right call. It just didn’t work this time.
And since the Panthers didn’t score a second touchdown anyway, it was a moot point.
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