Getty USC's Caleb Williams is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
Teams looking to make trade offers to the Chicago Bears for their No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft might need to make history to pry the pick away.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport dropped a little insider knowledge on the Bears’ pending quarterback situation on February 10, writing for NFL.com that Chicago would need to receive a “historic” trade offer to consider parting ways with the No. 1 overall pick and the right to select the top quarterback — likely USC’s Caleb Williams — in the class.
“Chicago would need a historic haul of draft picks and overall compensation to move off the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, sources say,” Rapoport wrote Saturday. “In the words of one source, it would have to be ‘crazy.'”
The latest information from Rapoport only seems to confirm what other insiders have reported about the situation over the past few weeks. ESPN’s Adam Schefter told The Pat McAfee Show on February 5 that the “feeling around the league” is the Bears will move on from starter Justin Fields and draft a new quarterback at the No. 1 spot.
Brad Biggs of The Chicago Tribune also wrote that he spoke with five NFL general managers during Senior Bowl week and heard a “resounding answer” from all of them that they expect Bears general manager Ryan Poles to make the pick at No. 1 overall.
If Poles is going to change his mind, though, he will likely need an offer that trumps what Carolina gave Chicago in last year’s top-pick exchange. The Bears moved down just eight spots to No. 9 overall and netted a 2024 first-round pick, a second-rounder in each 2023 and 2025 and star wide receiver DJ Moore in the deal.
Does New Report Conflict With Ryan Poles’ Comments?
Reports that the Bears would need a historic offer to move off the No. 1 spot are not terribly surprising. Fields has not played consistently enough over the past two seasons to solidify himself as their franchise quarterback. Caleb Williams is also considered one of the best quarterback prospects in recent years, even if he isn’t clearly “generational.”
The growing league consensus about what the Bears will do with the No. 1 pick could be construed as misinformation for the diehard fans who take Poles at his word, though.
During his end-of-season press conference in January, Poles repeated the same line he used in 2023 to describe the team’s approach to scouting quarterback prospects.
“I’ve got to stay open-minded about it,” Poles said. “Not to use the same quote, but when I say, ‘I need to be blown away,’ it’s the same setup because seeing the things that Justin did this year, his ability to make plays … keeping his eyes down the field, taking less sacks. You see a lot of growth there where he can continue to get better. So I’ll have the same mindset.”
Poles also reiterated how important it is to know “the person,” not just the quarterback. Considering the NFL Scouting Combine is a big opportunity for the Bears to collect that information, it could be fair to assume they do not have certainty about Williams just yet and, therefore, are not as dead-set on hanging onto the No. 1 pick as insiders think.
Then again, the NFL Combine is not the only piece of the Bears’ scouting process. They might already have a general sense of who Williams is as a person and feel strongly that an in-person meeting at the Combine will only confirm their beliefs about him.
Who Could Offer Bears ‘Crazy’ Trade Return for No. 1 Pick?
The Bears should have at least a few suitors for the No. 1 pick this offseason, but who among them could potentially make Chicago an aggressive and historic offer?
The Washington Commanders are a popular choice, sitting at No. 2 overall. They just hired Kliff Kingsbury — who worked with Williams as USC’s offensive coordinator in 2023 — to the same post on new head coach Dan Quinn’s staff. Based on his sources, though, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler warned fans “not to jump to conclusions” about that fit.
The new leadership with the New England Patriots may also feel motivated to pursue Wiliams as their new franchise quarterback. They are No. 3 overall and currently at the mercy of Chicago’s and Washington’s decisions, but an aggressive trade to the top spot would allow them to control the draft. The Bears could potentially acquire multiple future first-round picks from the Patriots, depending on their level of desperation.
The real blockbusters, however, are more likely to come from farther down in the order.
The Atlanta Falcons have trade and free-agent options to consider aside from the No. 1 pick, including potentially trying to acquire Fields from the Bears. If they feel strongly about Williams, though, they might offer multiple firsts and maybe even one of their top offensive playmakers — Kyle Pitts or Drake London — to try prying away the pick.
Farther down, the Los Angeles Rams (No. 19), Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 26) all fit the bill as teams that could make Hail Mary trade offers. The Bears might insist any exchange with a bottom-half team includes first-rounders in each of the next two drafts, but a “historic” haul could potentially demand even more.