The Chicago Bears didn’t seem too enthused about the trade interest in backup quarterback Tyson Bagent ahead of the 2026 NFL season, but one analyst thinks he could be in play to replace a $100 million Pro Bowl starter in 2027.
Bagent is likely secure in his role as the No. 2 quarterback on the Bears’ depth chart for a fourth straight season. He is a capable backup who is well liked by head coach Ben Johnson and is also entering the first year of his affordable two-year, $10 million deal.
That said, there is speculation that the Bears could eventually trade Bagent to a team that is willing to offer him a genuine opportunity to compete for a starting job. That scenario has only become more plausible as Caleb Williams — the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft — has continued to solidify himself as the long-term starter in Chicago.
Most analysts have only looked at the current options for Bagent, though.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano showed a little more foresight with his recent prediction for the 26-year-old Bears quarterback, projecting him as a possible “long-shot” successor for two-time Pro Bowl starter Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2027.
“After another down year, the Bucs and Mayfield agree to part ways,” Graziano wrote in his August 20 prediction. “Tampa Bay finds itself once again in the market for a reasonably priced QB solution and looks to the draft or free agency. “Maybe it takes a shot on someone such as Tyson Bagent or Tanner McKee.”
Tyson Bagent Could Work Nicely for Fresh-Start Bucs
A few teams have regularly come up as possible landing spots for Bagent in the months since Bears general manager Ryan Poles confirmed receiving trade calls about him.
ESPN’s Mina Kimes recently floated Bagent as a potential fit for the Cleveland Browns as they slog through a starting quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. Rumors also linked the Arizona Cardinals to Bagent in February.
A post-Mayfield Buccaneers team might work out best for Bagent in 2027, though.
The Buccaneers could flounder again in 2026, but they have about as much potential to compete for the NFC South crown with the talent on their roster. Mayfield is a key part of that build, but the roster doesn’t fall to pieces if they don’t extend him before his three-year, $100 million contract expires at the start of the new league year next March.
Instead, the Buccaneers could avoid paying big money to Mayfield and target Bagent in a trade. Bagent is far more likely to care about getting a starting opportunity than push for a raise in his current contract, which carries a cap hit of just $4.75 million in 2027.
Even if the Bucs decided to raise the value of his deal a little (or add guarantees where there are currently none in 2027), Bagent’s affordability would allow them to focus their money on other roster needs and ensure their roster remains an NFC South contender.
How Much Would Bears Seek in Tyson Bagent Trade?
The Bears find themselves in a fortunate situation with Bagent. He is an intelligent and in-demand talent at the game’s most important position, and he is a luxury in Chicago, where all signs for the future point toward Williams signing a mega contract extension.
With Bagent under contract through 2027, though, the Bears don’t have a competitive reason to trade away their backup quarterback without receiving a good trade offer. He will most likely leave in the long run when his contract expires, but the Bears can wait until that happens and play the comp-pick game instead of accepting a low-ball deal.
So, what would qualify as good value for Bagent in the Bears’ eyes?
Back in March, The Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs thought it would take at least a second-round draft pick to persuade the Bears to part with their beloved backup.
“The Bears have clearly made it known that if you’re going to call on him, they love him,” Biggs told 104.3 The Score in March. “Which is telling you the price isn’t going to be real low. I would think it would have to be a second-round pick.”
Whether that is the Bears’ actual asking price is unknown, but even something in the ballpark could appeal to Chicago’s front office if the team reaches the playoffs again in 2026. A third-round pick is hardly an offensive offer for a quarterback who has not played meaningful regular-season reps since his rookie season as an injury reliever.
It is also difficult to project what Bagent might cost without the context of the 2026 season. He might miss the rest of the preseason with his current injury, but he could boost his stock if he plays in the regular season, even in a meaningful Week 18 finale.
Bears Predicted to Trade Tyson Bagent in NFC as $100 Million QB’s Successor