Getty Dak Prescott
Bleacher Report is coming down, however slightly, from its competitor’s prediction for Dak Prescott.
Earlier this month, sports analytics giant Pro Football Focus forecasted the Dallas Cowboys signing Prescott, an impending unrestricted free agent, to a four-year, $158 million contract ($39.5 million annually) with $115 million in total guarantees.
On Friday, in analyzing five quarterbacks who are eligible for massive paydays, BR columnist Brad Gagnon reduced the proposed terms — four years, $146 million ($36.5 million APY) and $100 million guaranteed — but did not specify whether Dallas would be cutting the gargantuan check.
So logic points to Prescott finally landing a long-term deal, either in Dallas or elsewhere. It also points to Prescott making less than he would have earned if he didn’t get hurt and continued to produce at that level. That’s an unfortunate reality in this league.
The team insists it is committed to signing Prescott, but the organization obviously drew the line during last year’s negotiations and the open market could make it even more difficult to find a happy medium if it opts against using the tag.
A glass-half-full speculative take: The Cowboys and others might now be more inclined to go with a shorter-term deal considering his injury, which is reportedly Prescott’s preference.
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Not Good Enough?
Prescott bet on himself in 2020, playing on his fully-guaranteed $31.4 million franchise tender before re-approaching the negotiating table. The two-time Pro Bowler rejected several contract offers from the Cowboys last year that reportedly would have paid him around $34 million annually with approximately $110 million guaranteed.
Despite his season-ending ankle injury, Prescott is expected to garner a lucrative multi-year pact, with team owner/general manager Jerry Jones acknowledging of Dak, “I don’t know how you could have any more leverage.” But this latest prediction likely wouldn’t prompt pen to paper.
At $36.5M annually, Prescott would become the league’s third-highest-paid QB behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($45M APY) and Houston’s Deshaun Watson ($39M). The hypothetical guaranteed money would rank sixth-most, tied with Atlanta’s Matt Ryan.
Considering the 2021 franchise tender is worth roughly $37.7M, it doesn’t make much sense for Prescott to ink a long-term deal with lesser annual value. Especially when the QB market is continually being reset. If Jerry wants him, he’ll have to pony up — perhaps crossing the $40M APY barrier in the process.
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Cowboys Could Lose QB in Free Agency
Two Cowboys signal-callers — Prescott (No. 1) and Andy Dalton (No. 35) — cracked PFF’s ranking of the NFL’s top 100 free agents for 2021. However, only one is projected to remain in a Cowboys uniform.
Whereas they believe Prescott will re-up with Dallas, Dalton is forecasted to score a two-year, $10 million deal (including $8 million guaranteed) from the Denver Broncos.
Inked to an incentive-laden one-year deal last May, Dalton never expected to crack the starting lineup this season, fully content holding a clipboard for Prescott. The former longtime Cincinnati Bengals starter instead made 10 appearances following Prescott’s Week 5 injury, throwing for 1,926 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 187-of-286 (65.4%) passing, with a 90.7 cumulative QB rating.
Dalton, 33, will hit the unrestricted free-agent market as one of, if not the top retread option available. He’ll join the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitchell Trubisky, and Tyrod Taylor, and makes sense for a needy suitor like the Broncos, saddled with an inconsistent starter in Drew Lock, to gamble on.
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Follow Zack Kelberman on Twitter: @KelbermanNFL