Getty Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers attempts a pass during a game against the Washington Commanders in October 2022.
Oddsmakers had dubbed the trade chase for Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers a two-team race as recently as this weekend, but a third contender has emerged.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter took to social media on Monday, February 27, to share the news that the Washington Commanders released quarterback Carson Wentz, leaving a sizable hole on the roster and creating a massive amount of salary cap space for next season.
“Washington released QB Carson Wentz,” Schefter wrote on Instagram. “Releasing Wentz saves the Commanders $26.17 million against their salary cap.”
The Commanders also cut defensive back Bobby McCain Monday, saving an extra $4.42 million in 2023. As of the execution of those moves, Washington had amassed a total of $35.3 million in cap room for the upcoming campaign, per Over The Cap.
Rodgers More Likely to Land in Washington After Wentz’s Departure
GettyQuarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers walks to the sidelines after a failed fourth down attempt during a game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Now with Wentz officially out the door and second-year pro Sam Howell — with all of one NFL start under his belt — as the top name on the depth chart, the interest on Washington’s side of the equation has to have gone up.
The extra salary cap space created by Wentz’s departure also should increase the odds that the Commanders land Rodgers the next time those odds are figured, as the franchise’s prospects of absorbing the QB’s massive contract just got a whole lot rosier.
According to odds configured by PointsBet just two days ago on February 25, the Commanders were in the conversation for Rodgers but existed there as more of a footnote than an actual discussion piece.
The website listed the Las Vegas Raiders (-167) as the favorites to trade for the Packers quarterback, while the New York Jets (+140) slotted in second. Five other franchises — including the Tennessee Titans (+1200), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1600) and the San Francisco 49ers (+3000) — were also named more likely landing spots for Rodgers than was Washington.
The Commanders (+4000) made the list with the lowest odds included, finishing in a multiple-way-tie with a handful of other NFC franchises, most of which missed the playoffs by several games in 2022.
Primary factors for the Commanders’ longer odds last weekend probably included both market concerns and Rodgers’ expected level of desire to live in Washington D.C. Also likely factored in was the lower chance that the team, which finished with a record of 8-8-1 last year, can pull itself into legitimate Super Bowl contention during whatever remains of Rodgers’ NFL career — most likely just one or two more seasons.
But Washington was a playoff contender almost all the way down to the wire in 2022 and bested the Packers at FedEx Field in October. The Commanders roster is also talented on both sides of the football and the addition of Rodgers in a weaker NFC would probably mean the postseason in 2023, assuming relative health, etc.
Rodgers Could Announce Wishes For Future as Early as This Week
GettyQuarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after a touchdown during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
While Monday’s developments are significant, they only really impact the Commanders’ side of the equation. There is also Green Bay’s willingness to trade Rodgers within the NFC to consider and, probably more importantly, what Rodgers wants.
The former is fairly obvious: the Packers aren’t going to deal Rodgers inside of the NFC if they can avoid it. But the Jets have real interest in Derek Carr and the Raiders could decide either to draft a quarterback or pursue any number of free agents, including Jimmy Garoppolo who would be a fit in the desert. At that point, only the Indianapolis Colts exist as a likely AFC trade partner, and they are all but certain to make a long-term play by drafting a rookie prospect at No. 4 overall, assuming they don’t trade up and do it even sooner.
If all three of those teams fall through, dealing Rodgers to an NFC team would the only option outside of finding a deal with the Titans. And while the Commanders have a quality roster, it isn’t as experienced or playoff-ready as those in San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Sending Rodgers to Washington is among the best options that the QB might actually accept if the Packers are forced to strike a deal within the conference.
Meanwhile, illumination on arguably the most important factor, what Rodgers’ wants, could come as early as this week.
Peter Schrager talking about Aaron Rodgers on GMFB: “I think we might know about where he wants to be this week.”
“Peter Schrager talking about Aaron Rodgers on [Good Morning Football]: ‘I think we might know about where he wants to be this week,'” uSTADIUM tweeted on Monday.
If Rodgers decides to retire, all other conversations are moot. However, if he announces he wants to be traded, he is likely to include a few preferred destinations. Those may not become public at the same time as his decision on retirement, but should emerge relatively shortly thereafter.
It is important to remember that Rodgers does not possess a no-trade clause, though the threat of retirement should he be traded somewhere he doesn’t want to play will afford the quarterback considerable leverage in the trade conversations that are likely to come.