Getty OLB Preston Smith of the Green Bay Packers walks off the field after defeating the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers probably weren’t looking for a pass rusher at the top of the NFL Draft, but now it’s all but certain the team will go another direction.
On February 25, Green Bay restructured the contracts of outside linebacker Preston Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Packers saved over $16.1 million in 2023 and pushed the team budget $6.4 million under the salary cap for next season via the moves.
However, the restructures also upped the amount of dead money Green Bay will be forced to pay should it decide to part ways with Smith two years from now, which essentially locks the edge rusher into his starting spot through 2024.
Justis Mosqueda of Acme Packing Co. broke down the scenario via Twitter on Saturday.
“Preston Smith’s dead cap is now $14 million in 2024,” Mosqueda wrote. “You can stop telling me that the Packers *need* to draft a pass rusher early in the draft now. He’s starting for the next two years.”
Preston Smith Not the Problem With Packers’ Poor Pass Rush in 2022
GettyOLB Preston Smith and DT Jarran Reed of the Green Bay Packers sack QB Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles during a game at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
That Green Bay needs to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks isn’t really a debate. The Packers finished last season with only 34 sacks, which left them tied with the Cleveland Browns for 27th in the NFL, per StatMuse.
But Smith wasn’t necessarily the problem in that regard. After inking a four-year extension worth $52 million to stay in Green Bay last offseason, Smith generated 27 quarterback pressures, 20 quarterback hits and 8.5 sacks in the first year of that deal. All of those statistics rank third among Smith’s eight-year NFL career, per Pro Football Reference.
Smith accounted for 25 percent of the team’s total sacks on his own and led the roster in that category by 2.5 sacks over the next closest player — fellow outside linebacker Rashan Gary. After a breakout third season, Gary put together just six sacks in 2022, though he played only nine games due to injury. No other player on the roster produced more than four sacks last season, per statistics provided by ESPN.
Packers’ Cap Situation Makes Adding Pass Rushers Unlikely in 2023
GettyOLB Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a play against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
The Packers should look to add to the pass rush this offseason, but how to go about that remains tricky.
The team also restructured the contract of running back Aaron Jones after convincing him to agree to a pay cut. But even with the money saved against the salary cap across the three restructures combined, Green Bay remains more than $13 million short of the space needed to realistically pursue free agent talent, per Packers cap guru Ken Ingalls.
The Packers can generate some more space by restructuring the deals of offensive tackle David Bakhtiari and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who are scheduled to count $28.8 million and $24 million against the cap, respectively.
Heading into the offseason, the best free agents who also provide a pass rush do most of their work on the interior — namely Javon Hargrave of the Philadelphia Eagles and Daron Payne of the Washington Commanders. That might be more sensible area of the defense for Green Bay to add a pass rusher, with Gary locked in on the strong side edge via the fifth-year team option on his rookie deal and Smith now likely locked in on the weak side edge for at least the next two seasons.
However, Hargrave and Payne are each expected to command big money this offseason — Hargrave $20.1 million annually and Payne $19.4 million annually, per Spotrac projections.
The Packers are looking at a reload and reset sort of season in 2023 if they don’t bring back quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which recent reports have indicated they won’t. As such, it’s difficult to envision general manager Brian Gutekunst and company overextending financially to bring a premier pass rusher into a mediocre huddle.
Calls for the Packers to look for a pass rusher early in the draft don’t seem to be having much impact on what the experts believe Green Bay will to do with its top pick, as both Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay of ESPN project the team will select tight end Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame with the No. 15 overall pick this April.