The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-16 in Week 5 to improve to 1-4. However, they almost blew a 24-10 lead late in the fourth quarter. Head coach Todd Bowles was criticized for deciding to go for it from the one-yard line, up 24-10 with a little more than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
The Bucs were stuffed, and Dallas went down the field to score a touchdown, making the game 24-16. Dallas got a stop after that and had the ball with a chance to tie the game.
Bowles defended his decision after the game, saying that he was leaning on a successful ground game.
“We talked about it,” admitted Bowles. “It being less than a yard, and the way we were running the football, we were trying to put the game away.”
The Bucs had 39 rushes for 241 yards in Week 5. Bucky Irving added 21 rushes for 165 yards. However, Bowles is missing a bit of game theory at the end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Defends Questionable Fourth Down Decision
The Bucs could have kicked a field goal to make the lead 17. At that point, the Bucs had a three-possession lead. As the game played out, the Cowboys only had time for two possessions. So, the difference between a 21-point lead and a 17-point lead did not matter. The only thing that was important was the game being three scores.
Bowles also noted that the ground game was working. However, a lot of their runs were not in stacked boxes near the goal line. Irving exploded for a few big runs and hit big holes in the open field.
Some analytics models suggested going for it. However, that data has quarterback sneaks, which are highly effective, built into it.
“Way too many people are citing similar 4th down bots saying the Bucs should have gone for it last night,” tweeted ClevTa of ClevAnalytics. “The problem with this data is 4th and 1 at the 1 v likely includes a gigantic sample of QB sneaks in there, which skews the numbers and decision-making. That was not a sneakable option last night.”
The Bucs going for it, and not going for a quarterback sneak is a combination of a bad decision.
Bad Decision Almost Cost Buccaneers
So, while the Bucs survived the game, it is hard to say that the hot seat of Bowles got any less hot. The team won, but the questionable decisions of the coaching staff almost cost them. Beyond that, Bowles doubled down on his decision and did not acknowledge that a 21-point lead was not significant due to the time remaining.
There are still big questions for the Bucs moving forward.
Todd Bowles Defends Controversial Buccaneers Decision