Auston Matthews is still one of the best players in the NHL. He’s a top-10 center, but that’s not quite the same thing as saying he’s still one of the NHL’s bona fide elite players.
That’s the uncomfortable distinction the Toronto Maple Leafs may eventually have to confront.
NHL Network’s recent ranking of the NHL’s top 20 centers placed the Maple Leafs captain eighth. That’s good, but it’s a far cry from his days of being a top-three NHL center.
Auston Matthews has gradually moved away from the mind-shocking level he occupied during his peak. He went from being a perennial 50-goal threat and legitimate MVP candidate to a high-end star who has increasingly dealt with injuries and declining production.
That’s not necessarily a disaster. But it’s something that has to be weighing on the Maple Leafs’ minds.
The problem for the Maple Leafs is that Matthews is approaching another massive contract decision. If his current trend persists, Toronto may soon have to decide whether it makes sense to pay the sticker price commensurate with an elite player for someone who is just good.
And that decision could determine the Maple Leafs’ path for the next half-decade or so.
The Maple Leafs Have to Ask Where This Is Going
The biggest concern isn’t necessarily where Auston Matthews is today. The major sticking point is where he’ll be when his next contract begins.
There’s a major difference between paying Matthews $13 million-plus when he’s scoring 50 goals and driving the offense like one of the league’s most dominant players and paying the same kind of money when he’s producing at a much more ordinary rate for a superstar.
The Maple Leafs have already seen some of the warning lights flashing. His 27 goals and 53 points in 2025-26 were career lows, and injuries have become an increasingly pivotal part of the narrative surrounding him.
That doesn’t mean Auston Matthews is washed up and ready for the glue factory.
But it does raise a legitimate question: Is this a temporary dip, or is Toronto watching the beginning of an inevitable decline? That’s something the organization needs to figure out before backing up the Brinks truck. Because if Matthews continues trending downward, his next contract could become an albatross for the organization.
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What Do the Maple Leafs Do If Auston Matthews Still Wants to Get Paid?
Auston Matthews has earned the right to ask for a massive contract. He’s been the face of the franchise, a Hart Trophy winner and one of the most prolific goal scorers of his generation.
If Matthews still expects to command an enormous salary while his production no longer justifies it, the Maple Leafs could find themselves facing an incredibly difficult choice.
Do they pay him anyway? Do they risk allowing their franchise player to walk? Or do they decide that allocating that much money to a declining superstar is simply too dangerous?
There’s also another option. Auston Matthews could decide that winning in Toronto is worth giving the organization a hometown discount.
The Maple Leafs could keep him while maintaining enough cap flexibility to build a stronger roster around him. But if Matthews wants to maximize his next contract, Toronto may have to seriously consider whether it makes sense to make him the centerpiece of its salary structure for another seven or eight years.
That’s why this ranking could be a warning sign. Matthews doesn’t have to return to being a 60-goal machine. He simply needs to show the Maple Leafs that his decline has stopped. If it hasn’t, Toronto could eventually face the most difficult question of all:
How much should the Leafs pay a player for what he used to be?
Auston Matthews Ranking Could Be Warning Sign for Maple Leafs