The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is set to take place on Tuesday night. Among the teams hoping for good luck are the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs are not just hoping to win the draw. That would be a dream come true for Leafs Nation.
Draft Lottery Guide: t.co/pFMjPK7m9j
The hope is to, at the very least, remain in the fifth-overall spot. Staying put would at least guarantee Toronto keeps its first-round pick this season. While keeping the pick would season would ensure losing the picks in 2027 and 2028, well, that’s a bridge to cross another day.
The focus is on the present. And that focus is on getting enough balls in the drum to ensure the Maple Leafs don’t move down.
That’s the crucial point. The Leafs have an 8.5% chance of winning the NHL Draft Lottery. That’s a heck of a lot better than the odds the New York Islanders had last season. But the broader issue at play is the possibility that the Maple Leafs could drop back two spots.
Such an outcome would be disastrous. It would mean losing that covered first-rounder as it’s a top-five protected pick. In other words, a pick outside of the top five would mean sending the pick to the Boston Bruins as part of the conditions of the Brandon Carlo trade.
The last thing Maple Leafs fans want is to gift the Bruins another top-ten pick.
Why Maple Leafs Need to Keep 2026 1st Round Pick
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to keep their 2026 first-round pick. But the reasoning is not so much about the possibility of selecting a transformational player.
Yes, that’s crucial. But it goes beyond that. Getting that pick back would validate the suffering of the team’s fan base this season. It would offer some measure of solace for what was an otherwise wasted season of Auston Matthews and William Nylander’s prime.
Keeping the pick would allow the organization and its new management team to get off to a strong start. There would be a sort of optimism that would take over after the disappointing outcome of the 2025-26 season.
The Maple Leafs have pretty slim odds of winning the lottery. But then again, stranger things have happened in the NHL.
What Happens If Toronto Wins NHL Draft Lottery?
There will be two draws held on Tuesday night. The first will determine who gets the first-overall pick. The second draw will determine the second-overall selection.
So, what happens if the hockey gods favor Toronto? What would be the next step if the Maple Leafs land the first-overall selection?
Beyond the jubilation of winning the pick itself, the organization would have its work cut out. The main thing would be determining which player to take with that pick.
That would be the no-brainer approach. But there might be another way. That way could involve trading the pick. Heck, the Leafs might explore trading the second-overall pick, should the club land it.
Exploring a trade may be part of the due diligence process. But it seems unlikely the new management team would go down that route.
First thing is first. The aim will be to keep the pick. Once the Draft Lottery is over, the organization can figure out its next steps.
Maple Leafs Banking on NHL Draft Lottery Luck