Brian Hoyer makes his first career playoff start Saturday against the Chiefs. (Getty)
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After the Chiefs play the Texans on Saturday, one team’s 2015-16 season is going to be bookended by the same opponent. Two teams that were both three games under .500 at one point this season are now meeting for the first playoff game of 2016.
Alex Smith and the Chiefs are listed as 3-point favorites against J.J. Watt and the Texans at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Houston is 2-0 in franchise history in Wild Card games, but hasn’t made the postseason since 2012. The winner’s opponent in the next round depends on the winner of Bengals-Steelers later that night. If the Bengals win, the winner goes to Denver, while a Pittsburgh victory will send the winner to New England.
The Chiefs may have won ten straight, but they’ve failed to cover in three of their last four outings. They’ve been the underdog only once during a 7-3 ATS run, and that was the game Peyton Manning was benched with a foot injury. They also failed to cover in any game during their five-game losing streak earlier this season according to the OddsShark NFL Database. In total, they were 8-8 ATS in the regular season.
The Texans were covered in all nine of their wins this season, finishing 9-7 both SU and ATS. The pass-rushing tandem of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus have combined for 29.5 sacks this season, propelling Houston to three straight wins to end the regular season.
Brian Hoyer won the starting job for the Houston Texans in training camp, but was intercepted by the Chiefs on his first attempt of the regular season. The Chiefs scored two plays later, and never looked back en route to a 27-20 victory in the first meeting of these teams. With six minutes to play Ryan Mallett came on for Brian Hoyer and scored ten points in two drives, starting a QB carousel that would last for the majority of the Texans’ season.
There are two key matchups on both sides of the ball that could help determine the outcome of this game. When Chiefs offense is on the field, they must be wary of J.J. Watt at all times. If Watt gets the double-team, then Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney become the threat. KC negated this during week one with a quick passing and screen game, and burned Houston repeatedly in the first half on crossing routes.
On defense, Chiefs rookie Marcus Peters will get his chance in the national spotlight. The former first-round pick led the NFL with eight interceptions during the regular season, and will line up across from DeAndre Hopkins for most of Saturday’s game. Hopkins is coming off a 100/1,500/10 season, the first Texans WR to ever put up those numbers. Hopkins will likely see 10-15 targets, and Peters ability to stick with Hopkins will play a big role in determining a winner.
In a battle between two fast defenses, the point total for Chiefs-Texans has been set at 40 points at OddsShark.com. The Texans have been a strong under play all season, including four of their last six games. The point total was under in Houston’s games against the Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, and Saints this season. The Chiefs have been under in three of their previous four games, and hopefully will see pass-rusher Justin Houston return to the defense.
Pick: Kansas City is a hot team, but they’ve consistently found themselves in late battles with bad teams. Houston has looked bad at points this year, but they’ve also beaten a healthy Cincinnati team, a resume note the Chiefs can’t match. Houston has been right on the edge of being a good team all season long. Either they’ll stay on the edge and cover, or they’ll make the leap and stay undefeated as a franchise in the Wild Card round. I like Alex Smith over Brian Hoyer, but I’ve seen Andy Reid bomb enough games in January to spot the dud when I see it.
Chiefs vs. Texans pick: Texans ATS & SU
