The Baylor Bears opened up the first Big 12 head coach opening of 2026. Now a past conference foe of the Bears is emerging as a wildcard candidate to replace Dave Aranda. However, there’s a catch involving USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley.
And it has nothing to do with Riley’s reported massive contract buyout, should USC and him part ways.
Examining Lincoln Riley Fit at Baylor
College football insider for The Athletic Chris Vannini mentioned Riley’s name as a possibility for the Waco university opening, hailing him as the “ultimate wildcard” for the job.
“Industry sources a year ago shared whispers that Riley could be interested in this job, but it didn’t open,” Vannini wrote.
Vannini adds that tensions are already mounting involving Riley’s USC tenure. His Trojans took a massive 24-7 beatdown against a previously unranked Wisconsin team this past Saturday.
“Outside talk of the West Texas native leaving USC to return to his home state has been around for a while, whether by getting fired (complete with a $60 million-plus buyout) or by leaving on his own, which USC would likely welcome,” Vannini added.
The Catch Involving Lincoln Riley and Baylor
The Bears may not represent the only Big 12 opening.
So there’s one more place to closely monitor in the conference. And it’s within the Lone Star State too.
“The TCU job could also fit Riley if the Frogs move on from Sonny Dykes,” Vannini adds. “Riley’s stunning move from Oklahoma to USC in 2021 makes anything feel possible.”
Ironically, Riley’s defensive coordinator is former TCU head coach Gary Patterson. So perhaps he gets the nod there over one of the greatest coaches in Horned Frog history. Or perhaps brings along Patterson if this wild scenario happens.
But again, TCU remains locked in with Dykes despite its disappointing 2026 results. Including taking the stunning season opening loss to North Carolina in Dublin, Ireland.
Tensions Mounting for Lincoln Riley at USC
Vannini believes that USC’s next four games, starting with the Oct. 31 showdown versus No. 2 Ohio State, will determine Riley’s future.
Riley has managed to produce bowl contenders each season at USC, as all of his Trojan teams have played a December game. However, USC fans expect national title appearances or clinching one of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoffs.
This USC team faces possible elimination from the CFP race already. The Trojans’ loss to Wisconsin looks more costly than many fans will think, handing USC its second defeat of the season. Teams that finish 10-2 in the Big Ten Conference have a higher chance of sneaking into the postseason.
USC boosts its chances greatly by beating the second-ranked Buckeyes. But also must knock off No. 4 Indiana and No. 7 UCLA on the road to appeal toward the CFP selection committee. Going 3-0 against these ranked foes can even help place USC in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 5.
But if USC falters in all three, perhaps Baylor becomes the one swooping up Riley. Yet TCU is one more to closely monitor here involving Riley.
Baylor Emerging as ‘Wildcard’ for Ex-Big 12 Rival Coach But There’s a Catch