After Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers caught the final out in Game 5 of the World Series to clinch the franchise’s first title ever, there was pretty immediate speculation about how he might end up departing in free agency. Even manager Pat Murphy made some pretty hilarious remarks to Bauers’ face about how he would probably end up joining the New York Yankees in the offseason.
Murphy apologized to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman for the remark, but based on a recent prediction on Bauers from MLB Trade Rumors he may have to eat his words entirely. Several of their writers listed the top 50 MLB free agents in their estimation and predicted where they would end up signing and what their contract would look like and all three predicted that Bauers would end up accepting the $23.15 million qualifying offer that Milwaukee extended to him.
The Brewers were very smart to make a qualifying offer because Bauers is coming off a great season in which he hit .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and 86 runs batted in. That salary is at least tempting enough that Bauers could potentially say yes to it but even if he decides to turn it down, which is a very real possibility, then the Brewers will get draft compensation and international bonus pool money from whichever team ends up signing him.
It won’t be an easy decision for Bauers because if he turns it down then he will almost certainly be able to land a multi-year deal from another team, but perhaps for a lower AAV than the $23.15 million he’d make with the Brewers.
Jake Bauers may be seen as a one-hit wonder by teams
While Bauers is an incredible story and had a phenomenal 2026, there is cause for concern that he won’t be able to replicate it. Excluding 2026, Bauers is a career .211/.307/.365 hitter. He is 31 years old and is a journeyman so there’s a chance 2026 was just a magical year that will never happen again.
He may not get another opportunity to cash in on his 2026 campaign and get more guaranteed money in a multi-year deal so one couldn’t blame him if he turned Milwaukee’s offer down and decided to test free agency.
If he did turn the Brewers offer down then it is hard to see him re-signing with Milwaukee unless his market really did not materialize the way he hoped it would. The Brewers are pretty unsentimental when it comes to roster moves which is part of what makes them so good so they probably aren’t going to turn their back on that approach since it just won them a World Series.
Still, if Bauers does end up accepting the offer and he comes back then Murphy really will have to take back that Yankees remark but he would probably be more than happy to if it means he gets another season with Bauers.
Jake Bauers Brewers Contract Prediction Would Make Pat Murphy Eat His Words