The New York Mets are not shy about spending money to acquire players during the Steve Cohen era.
The time has arrived to really test that mettle and see how bold the Mets will be.
Tarik Skubal is heading for free agency after the Los Angeles Dodgers were swept in the NLCS by the Milwaukee Brewers. Their season ended Thursday night.
Skubal only became a member of the Dodgers a few months ago when the Detroit Tigers traded him, knowing that this was the last year of his contract and that free agency would follow the season.
The Dodgers will surely be interested, but there are only so many teams beyond the Dodgers and Mets who can even potentially afford Skubal. He’s expected to cost a record-setting number for a pitcher, maybe as much as $400 million in total value.
Maybe that means the New York Yankees will get involved. Perhaps Skubal’s former Tigers will try. The Toronto Blue Jays haven’t been shy about bidding wars in recent years.
But it’s the Mets who probably would need Skubal more than any other. They somehow have fallen down despite a massive payroll. The best fix may be to give Skubal more money than ever pitcher ever has gotten before.
Tarik Skubal Contract Projection With Mets
Skubal’s contract has a wide variety of possible outcomes, depending on how many years he wants and how much he wants to set the overall pitching contract record.
An ESPN article earlier in October surveyed industry insiders, and the most commonly voted salary range for Skubal was between $351 and $400 million.
Of those votes, there were six specific projections for $400 million exactly in total salary — four of those on an eight-year deal, which would be $50 million per year, and two of those on a 10-year deal, which would be $40 million per year.
“The average projected contract was eight years and $355 million, which is a $44.6 million average annual value (AAV),” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote as part of the article. “Sixteen of 27 projections (59%) were for $325 to 400 million guaranteed over seven to 10 years — a clear sweet spot, and you’ll see below why that is.”
There were also some shorter-term projections, which may be the kind the Mets would at least think about offering — a four-year projection for $176 million ($44 million per year) and a five-year projection for $300 million ($60 million per year).
Those short-term contracts would be a bit like the deal the Mets currently have Bo Bichette on.
When Will Tarik Skubal Sign?
Skubal signing this offseason will be complicated by the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, which is going to send MLB into a lockout.
Players won’t be able to sign until a new CBA is reached, and so they can either try to get a deal done quickly or wait it out.
If he gets an offer to his liking, Skubal may lean toward signing early.
“I also asked panelists whether the deal would be done before the Dec. 1 expiration of the CBA, when the expected lockout would start: 21 of 27 (78%) predicted the deal will be done before Dec. 1, similar timing to the nine-figure deals of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Javier Baez that came before the 2021-2022 lockout began. Boras negotiated the first three of those contracts,” McDaniel wrote.
If the Mets want Skubal, they might have to work quickly.
Mets Arrive at $400 Million Tarik Skubal Decision Time