No one expected the NASCAR Cup Series championship to slip away from Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, the most dominant driver during the regular season. However, the No. 11 team has fallen victim to some old fashioned bad luck.
Hamlin entered The Chase as the championship favorite, entering the postseason with a major points lead. But a surprise has emerged at the front of the field. Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, who went winless during the regular season, has suddenly come out as the driver to beat in the return of The Chase format.
Larson was actually at his coldest just before The Chase, scoring five straight finishes of 15th or worse, with four of those being 33rd or worse, dropping to 10th in the standings. Besides Bristol in the spring, where he led 284 laps, Larson had not shown the pace the two-time Cup Series champion has experienced since joining Hendrick in 2021.
But his ascent has come at the right time. And Larson may be in the best position of anyone to capture the first Cup Series title under the return of The Chase format, which would be his third Cup championship in just six seasons with Hendrick Motorsports.
Can Denny Hamlin Make A Comeback?
Before addressing Larson’s meteoric rise late in the 2026 season, it’s important to note that Hamlin is by any means out of title contention.
The veteran racer is statistically having one of his best years, which is quite impressive at 45 years old. With five races remaining on the year, he can technically surprass his career high in top fives (19) and tie his career high in top 10s (25). He is also on pace to be quite close to his best-ever average finish of 8.4, currently sitting at 8.6, even after two rough races through the first five events in The Chase.
Hamlin, who has four wins in 2026, has not won since Pocono in June, a triumph that marked three consecutive victories and fueled rumors that he would not retire at the end of 2027.
However, despite not winning since then, Hamlin remained consistent throughout the end of the regular season. His tough luck at Darlington, followed by a spin at Las Vegas, have dropped him to second in the standings behind Larson. But historically, Hamlin could have the upper hand on Larson is all goes well. His average finishing position at the next five tracks is better than Larson at Charlotte (12.3 versus 18.1), Talladega (16.8 versus 22nd), Martinsville (10.2 versus 14.8) and Homestead-Miami (10.2 versus 12th). Larson is .4 position better than Hamlin at Phoenix.
Can Kyle Larson Win His Third Title?
While the numbers speak for themselves, anything can happen, especially with stage points. Larson has a comfortable 40-point lead ahead of Hamlin, but as we have seen, that can disappear in a race or two.
Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels must continue to fire off on all cylinders if they want to hold off Hamlin and his crew chief Chris Gayle.
Larson will also have to avoid trouble at Talladega, a track that has plagued him time and again. But if he can have a consistent next five races, combined with at least one more win, Larson could very well hold off Hamlin for another Cup title.
Can Kyle Larson Hold Off Denny Hamlin For The NASCAR Cup Series Title?