The Los Angeles Lakers underwent sweeping offseason changes as the franchise shifts from building around LeBron James to Luka Doncic, and the early returns on the team’s hopes are a bit underwhelming.
Last year, with a core of James, Doncic, and Austin Reaves, the Lakers won 53 games during the regular season and lost in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Now, after overhauling more than half the roster, the team is expected to finish with a worse record, according to two new over/under win total projections.
Doncic remains a top MVP candidate, Reaves could be an All-Star, and the Lakers got one of the top defenders in the league in Walker Kessler. However, there are serious concerns about the limitations of this team heading into the 2026-27 season.
Lakers Expected To Underperform In New Over/Under Win Total With Luka Doncic As Main Star
In a recent list of over/under win totals published by Bleacher Report, the Lakers’ expected win total was 44.5.
That means Los Angeles is poised to finish with roughly a 45-37 or 44-38 record, which, in the Western Conference, might see them as a play-in tournament team this season. That’s also a drop of eight or nine wins from the year before.
A shot at what they did to build around Doncic this summer? Perhaps.
“While (the roster overhaul) debate clearly means Los Angeles overspent in both cash and draft capital on its new roster, it doesn’t point to a downgrade large enough to knock 9 wins off last year’s total,” Grant Hughes wrote. “That’s what it would take for the Lakers to hit the under here.
“Much depends on Luka Dončić staying healthy enough to produce a top-five offense, but Austin Reaves provides some playmaking insurance in the event of injury. Assuming Kessler is good enough to prop up a mostly punchless defense, a win total in the high 40s seems realistic.”
Additionally, a recent Lakers’ over/under win total projection by HoopsRumors.com has the franchise sitting at 46.5 wins this season. That’s also a drop-off from last year, which could also lead the Doncic-led squad into the play-in rather than a secure spot in the playoffs, as they were the fourth seed in the West last year.
That’s not good news for the Lakers, as they did a lot this summer to build around the core of Doncic, Reaves, and Kessler. The team was linked to several other big names, which they failed to land and instead signed other mid-level players, which could contribute to the expected fall-off this year.
There is at least one positive in terms of recent projections on this Lakers season, as ESPN predicts Los Angeles has an 88.3% chance to make the postseason.
Still, as Ben Golliver explained, his BPI projection ‘can occasionally be a little overconfident’.
The Lakers hope that’s not the case, and would likely sit happy knowing that’s their chances of playing basketball into late April and May.
Los Angeles’ Offseason Roster Moves In Busy Summer
Along with signing Reaves to a new extension and making the deal with the Utah Jazz for Kessler, the Lakers underwent a ton of change. All of the team’s roster moves are still in question, as the full group has yet to play together in a competitive setting through two preseason games.
Per NBA.com, here are all the Lakers’ offseason roster changes that they, but not the experts, expect to make them a better basketball team this year compared to last.
Additions: Quentin Grimes (four-year deal), Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler (four-year deal), Kevon Looney (one-year deal), Sandro Mamukelashvili (four-year deal), Collin Sexton (two-year deal), Matisse Thybulle (one-year deal), and Ziaire Williams (one-year deal)
Departures: Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, LeBron James, Luke Kennard, and Marcus Smart
“Once we got the news from LeBron and Rich that he was going to choose a different organization, we built a thesis for what we wanted this team to be heading into this season; JJ and I together,” Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka said during his recent press conference.
“And there were three fundamental pillars of what we wanted to accomplish in the offseason. We wanted to retain Austin Reaves; that was a really big thing for us. We wanted to find a way to acquire a franchise center, and then we wanted to develop a roster of JJ Redick dribble-pass-shoot players that were younger and add depth to our roster. That was sort of our three-prong thesis basketball-wise for the offseason, and we felt like we accomplished all those things.”
The Lakers’ pursuit of building a new roster has been well documented, and so far, the returns aren’t great.
Still, the regular season is long, and the franchise has a ton of time to prove they’ll improve from last season to this one, now with Doncic as the main superstar.
Lakers Poised To Underperform With Luka Doncic In Over/Under Win Total