One NFL analyst believes the Kansas City Chiefs won’t stay down for long.
After finishing 6-11 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, the Chiefs are projected by USA Today’s Nate Davis to rebound with an 11-6 record in 2026, returning to the postseason after one of the most surprising seasons of the Patrick Mahomes era.
Davis ranked Kansas City fifth in his preseason NFL power rankings and pointed to a revamped defense, an upgraded running game and a favorable early schedule as key reasons the Chiefs could quickly get back into contention.
NFL Expert Sees Familiar Formula Behind Chiefs’ Rebound
According to Davis, Kansas City’s offseason approach mirrors one that previously resulted in a Super Bowl championship.
“The last time they invested so much draft capital into the defense was 2022, and it immediately returned a Lombardi Trophy,” Davis wrote. “Could such lightning strike twice?”
While acknowledging defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo may need time to develop chemistry with a revamped secondary, Davis believes the overall talent upgrade gives Kansas City a chance to return to championship form.
He also highlighted the addition of running back Kenneth Walker III, who signed with the Chiefs after winning Super Bowl MVP honors last season.
“The arrival of Walker, who should invigorate a long-dormant ground game, gives K.C. four Super Bowl MVPs in its backfield,” Davis wrote.
He added that Walker could also help ease some of the burden on Mahomes as the quarterback continues recovering from the torn ACL he suffered late last season.
“Walker could also be called to provide some cover to QB Patrick Mahomes early in the season as he gets his legs, particularly the surgically repaired left one, back under him,” Davis wrote.
Kansas City’s schedule also works in its favor early in the year.
“Facing three non-playoff teams from last season before a Week 5 bye might provide an ideal break-in period for Mahomes and his new teammates – and maybe the momentum to get a (mostly) battle-tested team back on its dynastic track,” Davis wrote.
Chiefs Believe Better Health Can Fuel a Turnaround
The Chiefs’ disappointing 2025 season largely unraveled due to injuries.
Kansas City entered late November with a 6-5 record and remained firmly in the playoff race before several key contributors suffered season-ending injuries.
Cornerback Trent McDuffie landed on injured reserve after hyperextending his knee. Offensive tackles Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor both missed the stretch run, while linebacker Leo Chenal and wide receiver Rashee Rice also finished the season sidelined.
The biggest blow came in Week 15 when Mahomes tore his ACL, ending his season and effectively ending the Chiefs’ playoff hopes.
Kansas City closed the year on a six-game losing streak, finishing with its worst record since 2012 and recording its first losing season under Andy Reid.
Now, many of those injured players are expected back for Week 1.
Mahomes is on track to return less than eight months after surgery, while Rice and Simmons are also expected to be healthy for the start of the regular season.
The Chiefs also believe Walker can transform an offense that struggled to consistently run the football in 2025.
The veteran running back brings two 1,000-yard rushing seasons to Kansas City and is expected to play a significant role in helping balance the offense alongside Mahomes.
Chiefs Predicted to Make ‘Lightning Strike Twice’ After Key Overhaul