The Buffalo Sabres blew a shutout lead in Wednesday night’s loss to the Ottawa Senators. In many ways, one stat indicated it was coming.
Buffalo could not win faceoffs. By the end of the game, the Sabres won just 16 of their 53 draws, and they often found themselves chasing the Senators. Three of Ottawa’s centers absolutely dominated at the faceoff dot, including former Sabre Dylan Cozens.
Cozens finished with a 90.9 faceoff win percentage (10-for-11) against his former team. Tim Stutzle finished with the same win percentage. Claude Giroux won a perfect 100 percent of his faceoffs.
This has been a recurring problem for the Sabres all season. Faceoffs may only measure who gets puck possession first, and that possession can change hands immediately. That wasn’t the case on Wednesday when Ottawa outshot Buffalo 30 to 24.
With a 45.2 overall faceoff win percentage (44.0 in the offensive zone), they rank 31st in the NHL. This is something that the Sabres, for most of the 2020s, have had a tough time with. Most of the time, it has caught up with them.
Sabres Inconsistency At The Faceoff Dot Hasn’t Caught Up Yet
Heading into Wednesday night’s matchup with the Senators, the Sabres weren’t chasing opponents too often. They outshot opponents 393 to 379. The Sabres also boasted a 52.6 Corsi For Percentage at 5-on-5. Their scoring chances and high-danger chances for percentages were 50.7 and 50.5, respectively.
Those numbers indicate that losing faceoffs hasn’t quite caught up to the Sabres. They aren’t getting outshot in many games. But before Wednesday night, they spent more time holding opponents at bay with their shots for, 627 Corsi For, 293 scoring chances, and 98 high-danger chances, all clocking in below the league average.
Winning more faceoffs would boost those numbers closer to the league average. If that occurred, and if the Sabres kept up their solid defensive play, they would get hot. They need to figure out how to start winning draws and give themselves more chances to create more often.
Buffalo Stays Within Striking Distance Of A Tough Atlantic
The Sabres have 17 points and, heading into Thursday, are just six behind the division-leading Boston Bruins. Despite being tied for last in the Atlantic with the Detroit Red Wings, the Sabres have proven they can keep pace, even with play that is far from perfect.
Nobody is expecting Buffalo to transform into faceoff kings overnight or to even become a top-10 team at the dot. The same goes for other stat categories they struggle in.
But even slight improvements in those areas would keep opponents from creeping back in and ultimately stealing games. That happened on Wednesday night, and it denied the Sabres the chance to skate away from their home arena with two points.
So, improve at the faceoff dot and get closer to 50 percent. That will inch them closer to the middle of the league.
From there, the Sabres should see better results in the offensive zone, and that will lead to more two-point outings. That is something they will need while competing in the Atlantic this season.
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