In the wake of the shocking op-ed published by The New York Times by an anonymous senior Trump official who detailed a “secret resistance” inside the administration, you might be wondering what the odds of Trump impeachment are.
Surprisingly, Trump’s odds of impeachment haven’t changed markedly on any prediction-based websites. Traders at the online prediction market PredictIt give Trump a 44 percent chance of being impeached during his first term.
This number reflects a slight growth of likelihood over the last 90 days, but nothing drastic- the highest odds of impeachment reflected on PredictIt actually occurred on the day of the Manafort indictment and Cohen plea.
Trump Impeachment Odds Over the Last 90 Days
Since the op-ed was released two days ago, Trump’s impeachment odds have risen by around two points of likelihood on PredictIt.
PredictIt odds reflect a 6% likelihood of Trump being impeached by 2018, but a current 44% likelihood of Trump being impeached within his first term.
MyBookie reflects a slightly different story, predicting Trump to be at -500/+300 odds for making it through his first term.
One thing to watch for in the coming weeks won’t just be the unfolding drama around the source of the op-ed, but the increasing or decreasing likelihood that Democrats take over the house after the 2018 midterms. Should Democrats take the house, the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment should skyrocket past 50%.
Currently, FiveThirtyEight predicts there to be a seven in nine chance that Democrats will take the house.
Trump Tells Montana Crowd That Impeachment Will Be Their Fault If it Occurs
At a Montana rally on Thursday night, Trump told the crowd, “If it does happen, it’s your fault because you did not go out and vote. You didn’t go out to vote — that’s the only way it could happen. I’ll be the only president in history they’ll say: ‘What a job he’s done! By the way, we’re impeaching him.’”
Trump continued, “This election you aren’t just voting for a candidate. You’re voting for which party controls Congress.”
A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll revealed that 49% of people polled would support Congress if it initiated impeachment proceedings.