Jarren Duran’s future with the Boston Red Sox hinges on a Nov. 20 deadline, and longtime MLB insider Sean McAdam predicted Friday that Boston would tender him a contract. But that prediction comes with a warning about the 30-year-old speedster’s declining performance. Is Duran worth the money it appears he will make next season? That is the tough decision the Red Sox now face.
According to McAdam, writing for MassLive, Duran is in line for an arbitration judgment of $11.1 million. The Red Sox will “no doubt” tender Duran even at that price, McAdam predicted. But Boston is widely expected to shop him on the trade market this offseason as well, according to McAdam.
McAdam is a columnist and supervising reporter at MassLive. He has covered MLB and the Red Sox since 1989, including 23 years at the Providence Journal, and is a Baseball Writers’ Association of America stalwart.
In his Friday prediction, McAdam noted that Duran still has perceived value despite his drop-off in production.
“Duran is now two years away from free agency. He’s coming off his worst year (.207 BA, 76 OPS+) but still has value because of his combination of power (20 homers) and speed (21 steals) to go with above average defense,” the longtime insider wrote.
Jarren Duran’s Clear Decline in Plate Productivity
Duran hit .207/.266/.361 in 151 games, with 20 homers, 21 steals and 0.4 wins above replacement. In 2024 his numbers stood at .285/.342/.492, with 21 homers, 34 steals and 9.0 WAR, an All-Star selection and eighth place in AL MVP voting. He followed with .256/.332/.442 and 4.9 WAR in 2025.
His hard-hit rate fell from 46.8% to 39.9%, and his average exit velocity slid from 91.8 mph to 89.6 mph, according to an MLB Trade Rumors analysis. His strikeout rate reached 27.1% and his batting average on balls in play fell to .252.
Duran’s expected batting average was .237 and his expected wOBA .301, against an actual wOBA of .274, according to Baseball Savant data. His 9.1% barrel rate held near its 2025 level, and his 29.0 feet-per-second sprint speed ranks in the 90th percentile.
His chase rate rose to roughly 34% from 28.1% in 2024, according to Batting Leadoff‘s Jake Morrison, who attributes the slump to swing decisions rather than lost power.
Taken together, the figures show a real decline in plate discipline and contact quality, along with some bad luck on balls in play. His power and speed have held.
Boston Red Sox Face Jarren Duran Tender Decision at $11.1 Million
MLB Trade Rumors‘ Matt Swartz projects Duran’s 2027 salary at $11.1 million, up from $7.7 million this year. As a Super Two player, Duran is under club control through 2028.
Duran is arguably the toughest call among Boston’s 17 arbitration-eligible players, according to Sports Illustrated. A tender would still leave room for a trade, while a non-tender would send him to free agency with a return to Boston still possible but much less likely.
A trade is the likeliest result, according to one analysis, which notes that Boston would be selling him at bottom value. Boston’s last comparable move came in 2021, when it dealt outfielder Hunter Renfroe and his $7.6 million price to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects.
San Diego has surfaced as a suitor.
“If he’s going anywhere, it’s probably the Padres,” insider Jon Heyman said, as quoted by reporter Dan Morrison.
Duran, 30, was born in Corona, California, and played at Long Beach State before Boston drafted him in the seventh round in 2018. He debuted July 17, 2021, and has hit .254/.314/.432 with 70 homers and 112 steals in 661 games. He won the 2024 All-Star Game MVP award.
Red Sox Get $11.1 Million Jarren Duran Warning Ahead of Tough Decision