Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States, according to a projection from Heavy’s partners at Decision Desk HQ. Votes are still being counted in several states, including Pennsylvania, where Biden has taken the lead, and Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Up-to-the-minute election results and the updated Electoral College map are available here from Decision Desk HQ.
Follow the 2020 presidential election results courtesy of Heavy’s partners at Decision Desk HQ below:
See the Most Recent Presidential Electoral College Results & Map Here
Decision Desk HQ is tracking the race for the 270 Electoral College votes, which are what Trump or Biden need to secure the election. You can see the most recent Electoral College vote estimates below.
And, courtesy of Decision Desk, the most recent presidential vote results in map form are below. You can click on a specific state to see more details about that state.
For most of the evening, the votes have been close. By 9:20 p.m. Eastern time, results were showing a very close race, with an estimated 115 electoral votes going to Biden and an estimated 120 going to Trump. And then by 12:15 a.m., the race was still close. Biden was in the lead again, but large states like Texas were still waiting to be called. The possibility of a 269-269 split was also not off the table. By Wednesday, there were still states outstanding and the race was still too close to call.
Most Polling Had Favored a Biden Win
Poll results have left it tougher to predict who is going to walk away with the win this time around, 538 reported, but Biden had the lead when polls were released before Election Day. When accounting for polls’ quality, sample size and recency, Biden had 51.8% in the polls compared to Trump’s 43.4%. That’s a solid 8.4-point lead. Individual polls may show closer results.
For example, YouGov for October 31 to November 2 gave Biden 53% to Trump’s 43%, a solid lead. Research Co. for October 31 to November 2 gave Biden 50% to Trump’s 42%, which is also a solid lead of 8 points.
Ipsos narrowed the lead to 7 points, giving Biden 52% to Trump’s 45%. Swayable, which 538 doesn’t rank quite as high as some other polls, gave Biden a 6-point lead of 52% to Trump’s 46%.
Meanwhile, SurveyMonkey for October 30 to November 1 handed Biden 52% to Trump’s 45%. Some have given Biden an even stronger double-digit lead. For example, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for October 30 through November 1, gave Biden a 12 point lead of 52% to Trump’s 41%. A Quinnipiac University poll for October 28 to November 1 gave Biden 50% to Trump’s 39%, an 11-point lead. Only polling from Trafalgar Group has put Trump in the lead. So overall, Biden is leading the polls, though more recent ones have narrowed that lead just a shade.
Vote Counting May Take Longer Than Normal in Some States Because of Mail-In Ballots & Record Voter Turnout
This is going to be an unusual race overall this year. Before Election Day, more than 97 million votes had already been cast, The New York Times reported. This accounted for more than 2/3 of the total number of people who voted in 2016. Of these numbers, 35.5 million were in person and 62.1 million votes were cast by mail.
As a result of this potentially large turnout, some states’ results may take longer than normal to be known. Some Texas counties have said that they expect record turnouts this year and results might not be known by the normal 10 p.m. Central time. Coryell County Election Administrator Justin K. Carothers told KCENTV that they had 5,000 voters on Election Day 2016, and they are expecting 2,000 to 3,000 more than that today. Other states, meanwhile, are expecting to announce results later than today because of the large number of mail-in ballots. In Pennsylvania, for example, polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time but the actual results could take longer to be known. Mail-in ballots can still be counted as long as they are received within three days of the election, as long as there’s no proof they were mailed after the polls closed, AP reported. Governor Tom Wolf appeared in an ad airing on Election Day warning that in order to count the votes accurately, it could take a few days for results to come in, The Hill reported.
Both Campaigns Have Had Numerous Rallies in the Last Week
Both candidates have been campaigning extensively in the last few days. Biden and former President Barack Obama had a joint rally in Michigan over the weekend. The Democrats’ rallies tend to be drive-in rallies that encourage social distancing and mask-wearing.
Trump, meanwhile, has been attracting thousands to his rallies across multiple states. Some days, he’s hosted three to five rallies in a single day. Here are some photos from recent rallies.
While Trump supporters have enjoyed his rallies, Democrats have criticized Trump for hosting large-scale rallies that in some cases broke outdoor gathering limits for certain states.
See Overall Senate & House Results Below
While you’re waiting for presidential results, you may also be interested in keeping an eye on Senate and House results nationwide. Below is the vote count for the Senate.
You can see a map of the results for the House below. Hover over the state of Texas or any other state whose results you want to see.
It’s possible that we won’t know who won the election by the end of tonight, depending on how the electoral votes stack up for early-reporting states. Some battleground states are allowed to count mail-in ballots for several days after the election, as long as they are postmarked by today. Whether or not this slows knowing who won depends on how the electoral votes for other states are split up tonight.