News

Clinton-Trump Second Presidential Debate: Betting Props, Odds & Event Analysis

Students from Washington University rehearse as stand-ins for the second presidential debate October 8, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Getty)

Students from Washington University rehearse as stand-ins for the second presidential debate October 8, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Getty)

While Hillary Clinton seems to be pulling away from Donald Trump in the election polls, projecting which props will pay out during their second U.S. presidential debate on Sunday is anything but predictable.

Reflecting her jump in the polls, the Democratic challenger Clinton is now a -333 favorite to win the election on Nov. 9. Trump is now a +240 underdog, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. That is a vast change from the odds released on Sept. 27 after the first debate, when Clinton was at -250 and Trump was at +180.

Trump was all over the map rhetorically in the first debate on Sept. 26, and by this point, the businessman can be counted on to use a few pet phrases. There is a -180 prop that Trump will say “build a wall” or “build the wall,” with a +140 prop on him not saying it. Trump using “bigly” or “big league” is even money, with a -140 prop that he will eschew using the slang term.

A “huge” being dropped is, well, a huge favorite at -250, with +170 on Trump not using his favorite adjective. And the biggest value bet on Trump’s diction is the +350 on him inventing another word (to join “bigly”) in the lexicon. There is a -600 prop that he will not.

The over/under on how many times China will be said is 9.5. The over/under on mentions of Mexico is 4.5. For Russia, it is 12.5. The under is listed at -130, with over at -110 for each.

Trump surprised the smart money by wearing a blue tie in the first debate on Sept. 26. Red is the -250 favorite for The Donald’s neckwear, with yellow/gold listed at +175. Blue, which is unlikely to be repeated, is listed at +3000.

Clinton wore a red jacket that night. The more subdued blue is listed at -175, with white at +400, yellow/gold at +600, black at +1000 and a repeat red at +3300. Anything outside that color palette goes for +400.

NBC is the -225 favorite for the most recorded viewers ahead of ABC (+150), CBS (+300) and Fox (+550).

The first debate had a recorded 84 million viewers, but there is a -250 prop on fewer viewers this time around at online gambling sites now that the curiosity factor has abated.

The final debate is on Oct. 19 at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

2 comments