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Early Voting Results: Clinton Beating Trump By 9 Points Nationwide, New Study Finds

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, TargetSmart, are polls wrong, are polls skewed, Florida early voting, Ohio Early voting, African-American turnouts

Early voting results are not going well for Donald Trump, according to a TargetSmart study. (Getty)

Nearly 40 million Americans cast their 2016 presidential election ballots by Friday, and those early voting results bring good news for Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a new study released Saturday by the research firm TargetSmart.

For Republican Donald Trump, the early votes leave him with a steep mountain to climb, in order to win the presidency.

The TargetSmart study found that 39,697,817 voters had already turned in their ballots as of November 4. Considering that 126 million Americans voted in the 2012 presidential election, down from 131 million in 2008 with another drop-off expected for 2016, that early voting figure may represent more than one-third of all votes to be cast in the Trump vs. Clinton election.

If so, Trump has his work cut out for him with the remaining two-thirds who have not yet voted. According to the TargetSmart study, which employs a statistical model to estimate how many early voters support each candidate, Clinton already holds a lead of nearly nine percentage points — 8.9 points, to be exact — among votes that have already been cast.

The study found found that 47.5 percent of early voters were “likely” to have voted for Clinton, while only 38.6 percent “likely” voted for Trump.

The one ray of hope for Trump comes in the percentage of voters “likely” to be “swing” voters — that is, voters whose preference is impossible to determine because they fit neither the profile of a likely Clinton voter not a Trump voter, or they may have voted for an alternative candidate.

The TargetSmart Study found 13.9 percent of early voters falling into the “likely swing” category.

But Trump would require votes from 64 percent of those voters simply to even out the early voting results with Clinton.

In fact, if the TargetSmart model has correctly determined the percentage of early voters who voted for each candidate — and assuming that the “swing” voter ballots do not change those percentages significantly — Trump would need to win roughly 55 percent of all remaining voters to overtake his Democratic foe.

That may prove difficult due to a number of factors.

Early Voting Results: Clinton Crushes Trump in Key States, New Poll Finds

A new poll shows early voting results for several key swing states, and the numbers look very good for Hillary Clinton and dismal for Donald Trump.

Click here to read more

First, women appear to be turning out to vote at a significantly higher pace than men. Among early voters, just short of 56 percent were women. But according to a CBS News/New York Times poll from November 3, only 36 percent of women voters support Trump.

If women continue to turn out at the high rate indicated by the early voting results, Trump will need to find a well of support among women voters that simply has not existed for him so far.

Another bad sign for Trump in the TargetSmart study comes in the group’s findings regarding turnout among “low propensity” voters, that is, groups who tend to vote in low percentages and with low frequency. Trump’s own strategy has been built around “enfranchising conventionally low propensity voters,” according to a Trump campaign internal memo from early this year.

But the TargetSmart findings show “low propensity voter’s share of early vote is slowly increasing.” That means Trump is losing those voters — voters he’s been counting on to show up for him — to Clinton’s lead in the early voting.

Early Voting Results: Do They Show Polls Were Wrong? Or Right?

Early voting results are rolling in, but how do they compare to the presidential polls? Was polling right? Or do the early results prove them wrong?

Click here to read more

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40 comments

  1. There is simply no way to know how people voted until the polls close and the numbers are released on how people actually voted and for whom. Trump has more dem support, african american supprt and some latino support according to some polls. We can assume or guesd how the dems and gop voters, voted but we dont really know. It looks like indepedents will decide, NC, Fl, PA, New Hampshire, CO. And many are voting for trump. Dems numbers are down in nevada, ohio, florida, nc compared to 2012. That should be took into account too.

  2. This is the dumbest thing I have ever read. You just make up this assumption more voted for Hilary than trump simply to discourage ppl. You’re a garbage news outlet

    • What if I told you… that sometimes facts don’t agree with what you’d like to be true. That doesn’t mean the world is a conspiracy against you.

    • I agree. People are swayed by early poll broadcasts just as much as they are influenced by the campaign ads and other peoples’ opinions. Neither should be relied upon for making this decision.

  3. “The study found found” bro… no proof reading, your source is two dudes without any proof of an actual sample study- the actual wouldn’t be available to a couple of poporatzi bums.. the sad thing is, this Could be an impressive arguement and an interesting read. This is just a bad author pumping out more false political jibjab on a sub-par publisher, right before the general. Show a little effort bubba..

  4. In other words, this is more corrupt liberal news media lies. The liberals are trying to convince Republican voters that it’s hopeless so they will give up and stay home. The truth is, they have no clue how the voting is going as the real results cannot be released until the general election is over November 8th. DON’T BELIEVE ANYTHING these liars say! Republicans get out and VOTE November 8th!!!

  5. TOTAL NONSENSE !!!! TRUMP WILL. CRUSH THIS SKANK !!!!
    ANOTHER LIBERAL RAG CHASING GHOSTS ….
    PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP ……NOW THAT’S ‘heavy’

    • Hey! That’s President Elect Skank thank you very much. And by the time she’s done there will be weed and gay marriage as far as the eye can see.

    • Rob, people like you are the reason I voted for Hillary- By the way, Rob, I am a life long fairly conservative Republican. However, it doesn’t take much intelligence to see that most of the accusations regarding Clinton are in the minds of Tea Party idiots. I realized just how dumb they were when they flipped out after Comey initially said there was no reasonable basis to indict Clinton. Also, watching her make a complete fool out of the House Committee Republicans for a day was not fun to watch. Is that really all the fire power the Republican Party can muster these days for Congressional Candidates. These people were morons.

  6. Hillary beating Trump by 9 point nation wide scandals and also she is leading continously on sleeping 14 hours a day not to mentioned 3 hours bathroom Nap time according to target the smart.

  7. Now trump supporters say this poll results is not fair. But is the same poll show Trump winning them they are good.

  8. You guys aren’t even going to mention that TargetSmart is a political data firm that works DIRECTLY with the DNC? That’s pretty much like telling us we should go with the election data on hillaryclinton.com.

  9. Look around. See all those Women and Latinos voting early? They’re not doing it because they like being insulted by Trump.

  10. lets compare. I know that Hillary has done a bang up job of vilifying Trump, I also know that none of you hillaryites ever get news that might be in the least bit negative about Hillary. but don’t tell us the polls are dead even when Hillary cant even get enough people to fill a high school basketball court, while trump is filling huge arenas. oh well if not that then why does 60% of voters think she’s untrust worthy? or that the country is on the wrong track 58%. yet you go right ahead and tell us the most investigated, the most scandalous, candidate in the history of this country is poll these high numbers? magic? unicorn farts? hell more people believe in bigfoot then trust Hillary!

  11. You expect us to believe this??? Hillary had to cheat Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic primary. Those Sanders people (nearly half of those that voted) are not going to vote for Hillary. Just where is all of her support coming from?

  12. You can already read it in the Trump supporters’ comments. That dawning realization and anger that Trump is losing on election day, and he’s losing by a lot. After 8 years of Barack Obama doing as he pleased, now it’s going to be 8 more years of Hillary Clinton. And they’re utterly powerless to do anything.

  13. DONOLD TRUMP IS A JACK ASS
    HE IS GOING TO TAKE WOMENS RIGHTS AWAY
    A WOMEN HAS THE RIGHT TO HAVE A ABORTION. SOMETIMES A WOMEN GETS PREGNANT BY ACCIDENT AND DOESNT WANT IT, AND WHY HAVE THE BABY JUST TO GIVE IT UP? DONOLD TRUMP HAS NO BUSINESS TO TELL WOMEN WHAT TO DO WITH THEIR BODY
    U PIECES OF SHIT U SUPPORT TRUMP ARE SEXIST ASSHOLES

  14. What’s meatless in this is an analysis, or perhaps the lack of available data, to say “Hillary” up in the following states that matter. By ‘matter’, I mean, states that are seen as swing or battleground. If she’s crushing the vote in California or NY, or any other ‘blue’ state, so what. It’s expected and not going to change outcomes. There is a lot of bias in media. If Trump’s campaign has taught us anything, it’s that …