For the first time, Elizabeth Warren saw a slight lead in Democratic nominee betting odds for which Democrat would win the nomination for the Presidential candidate. She now leads in more than one Democratic odds tracker, which could be a sign of increasing favorability. Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds for the Democratic nominees. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
Elizabeth Warren Edged Into a Slight Lead in Betting Odds for the Democratic Nominee
Late on Wednesday night, September 25, Elizabeth Warren edged into a slight lead in betting odds for the Democratic nominee for the first time, according to PredictIt. She was slightly better than even money to win the Democratic nomination, with “Yes” shares priced at 51 cents. This represents that a 51 percent chance that she would win the Democratic nomination, according to bettors’ predictions. Of course, betting odds can and do frequently change. You can see the latest results on PredictIt here.
As you can see in the PredictIt chart below, she leads with Yes shares at 51 cents.
Joe Biden’s yes shares were priced at 21 cents (a decrease of 4 cents). Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang’s yes shares were both priced at 10 cents and holding steady. Pete Buttigieg was priced at 6 cents, Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton at 5 cents (although Clinton is not running), and Amy Klobuchar was at 3 cents.
Here are PredictIt’s rules for the Democratic Nominee betting odds:
The individual identified in the question shall win the 2020 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Charts comparing Warren, Biden and Sanders give you a better idea of how things have changed over the last seven days.
Here’s the chart for the last seven days including Yang, Buttigieg, and Harris. Only the candidates with the six highest shares were included as options in this chart.
The candidates appear to be holding fairly steady in betting odds, with Buttigieg actually experiencing a sligh increase in price over the last seven days. Warren had a slight dip earlier this week and then rose to 51 cents for the first time.
A look at the last 90 days is especially interesting.
You can see that Warren’s “yes” shares have grown considerably since late July/early August. Meanwhile, Biden’s shares have begun decreasing slightly and Harris’s “yes” shares took a big dive in late July, around the same time that Warren’s shares began to grow.
Meanwhile, Sanders has remained relatively stable with a slight decrease at the end, while Buttigieg has experienced a slight decrease and Yang has experienced a slightly increase, but not by much.
OddsShark Also Places Warren in the Lead
OddsShark also places Warren in the lead among Democratic nominees right now. In a September 24 article, OddsShark noted that Warren was leading the odds after a recent Des Moines/CNN/Mediacom Iowa poll placed her ahead of Biden by two percentage points.
According to these Bovada odds, Warren’s odds to win the Democratic nomination are at +150 on September 24, compared to +200 on the 12th and +175 on the 17th. Her odds of winning have been steadily growing in the past week.
Biden’s odds as of September 24 are +275, Sanders is third at +650, and Yang is fourth at +1000. Harris and Buttigieg are fifth at +1100. Interestingly, Warren has been first since September 12, but her odds have been steadily increasing.
OddsShark compares this to Bovada’s opening odds on June 26. Then, Biden led at +200, Sanders was at +450 tied with Buttigieg, and Harris was +550. Elizabeth Warren was fifth at +700, followed by Yang at +1,200. So Warren now being first is a big odds increase since June.
In overall 2020 Presidential odds to win the whole thing, Warren is still behind Trump as of September 24/25, but solidly in second. Trump went from +110 to +120 from the 24th to 25th. Warren went from +375 to +300. Biden has been third. Interestingly, on August 27 Trump was heavily favored to win with -110, so he’s had a bit of a drop since then.