Who Won the Debate? Betting Markets Say Clinton

Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump

(Getty)

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump faced off Monday night in the first of three debates they will hold before Election Day.

Although it won’t be clear for a few days if the debate impacted the polls in either direction, Clinton received favorable results among several polls evaluating the who won the debate.

A CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers released after the event found 62 percent felt Clinton won compared to 27 percent for Trump. However, the poll suggests the debate audience was a bit more Democratic than the public as a whole.

Another positive indication for Clinton was how quickly the betting odds moved in her favor during the debate.

Clinton’s odds of winning the election at Predictwise, which aggregates data from betting markets, moved from 69 percent before the debate to 73 percent in the hour after it ended.

Clinton is up 4 percentage points nationally and up in all swing states, according to Predictwise.

The prediction market at PredictIt also showed a lot of movement following the debate. According to their data, Trump’s betting odds plunged from 39 to 31 percent.

A Clinton contract on PredictIt gained 6 cents from the previous day to 69 cents, while a Trump contract fell 7 cents to 31 cents. PredictIt allows you to make predictions on future events by buying shares in the outcome. Each outcome has a probability between 1 and 99 percent, converted into US cents.

Clinton has been a favorite throughout the campaign, but her odds have fallen over the past several weeks as the national and state polls have tightened.

As New York Times’ Nate Cohn pointed out, Clinton’s margin in the CNN/ORC poll following Monday’s debate is similar to Mitt Romney’s margin over Barack Obama in the first presidential debate of 2012. The polls immediately shifted, with Romney even briefly leading.

Polls released on the eve of the first debate show how tight the 2016 presidential race has become in recent weeks.

A national Bloomberg poll found Clinton and Trump tied at 46 percent in a head-to-head survey, with Trump leading by 2 points in a race that includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

Trump moved into the lead this morning in 538’s “nowcast,” which attempts to convey what might happen if the election were today. However, Clinton moved back into the lead after a few more favorable polls.

According to the latest NBC News SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll, just hours ahead of the first debate, Clinton led by 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent in a four-way race, unchanged from last week.

In a two-way match-up without the third-party candidates, the poll showed Clinton has a 7-point advantage over Trump, 51 percent to 44 percent.

The NBC News SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online among a national sample of 13,598 adults who are likely to vote.

6 Comments

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6 Comments

manigordo

i’m disappointed in dt last night… all he had to do was keep calm and be more prez like; and he failed to do so, sadly. perhaps even try to be a little more likable if possible. i really thought he was smarter than that, and it wasn’t that hard to accomplished… he failed to understood that the race at this stage is about swaying the centrists to his camp. so the only subjective opinion that matters is that of the undecided viewers. that’s how you win the election at this point. the media and their ‘analysts’ were obv against dt from the start; so their biased venom was to be expected. because there is indeed a dbl std; and it’s all in favor of hellary, obv. even though i think he won the debate, barely. he’d have not lost a single vote by being softer, kinder, and more empathic; but just the opposite. in these venues how you say things is more important that what you actually say. how you carry yourself is more important than how you attack and portray your opponent. ‘facts’ are the least important things. yet there was so much he could’ve thrown at her, but failed to so as well. although obv the format wasn’t the best for it. benghazi, basket of deplorables, lying about her pneumonia, etc, etc, etc. didn’t have to be great speeches, just catchy one liners which dt is so cleverly adept at it. sorry; was so good at it, because he also fell short in that dep as well. when hitlary ‘apologizes’ is immediately put to rest; but every other retraction of dt is never let go, wtf1 they both interrupted each other, and disrespected the mod, and rules of the debate. yet only dt is being accounted for it11 hellary gets a free pass; as always111 and the audience was obv in her favor too1111 she didn’t answer a lot of the questions, and even the ones she did; she did inadequately. she came false, inhuman, dishonest, and fake; as always; but she still ‘won somehow’, beats me… next debate we should have an impartial doctor check if she’s not an android; really. her sociopathic lack of emotion is troublesome, at the very least. she obv only cares about herself, her dough, and how to use others to her advantage. yet again, only dt biz record is being questioned, even though she has been stealing from the gov for a living since forever. only dt is being lambasted for his responses, or lack of thereof. he didn’t have to answer every single thing brought up, specially if he couldn’t arg a decent point. decent reasoning and common sense officially being thrown out of the window. i thought dt had recovered fully by now and that the race was over, but i was mistaken. the media will have their field day, exaggerate as always, and crucify him; but to be fair, it was mainly by his own demise. so bottomline, he stupidly fell into her temper trap, and now has to pay the price for his mistake; specially the wrath of his own supporters, like myself…

HGH

It was Blatantly Obvious this was set up from the start for CrooKilary!! What is Trump supposed to do, when Holt,, the PSEUDO Republican, lol, yea right, gives every advantage he can to the Lyin Hildabeast!? Just stand there and take it?! No Way!

MJW

Crock of lies. Proves CNN will say and do anything to make it appear Clinton won. Not even close on every other poll I’ve seen.

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